By Devsagar Singh
The Bihar assembly election slated for October/November this year has begun to make political waves with high stakes for both the ruling NDA and the opposition Mahagathbandhan.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah have already visited the state in what obviously is their prestige fight to retain control of the state and possibly install a BJP chief minister. Congress President Kharge and Rahul Gandhi too have made their forays while RJD leader Tejaswi Yadav has never let his guard down.
The political landscape of Bihar remains queered with indications of further polarization of minority votes in favour of the RJD/Congress combine following upheavals in the wake of the new waqf act. The question being asked in certain quarters is whether it would lead to counter polarization as well.
The BJP/RSS sympathizers may , in all likelihood, rake up the polarizing issue. But Bihar voters have traditionally rejected a divisive agenda which leads to guessing what could be the weapon for the saffron fold.
Some observers say they are pinning their hope on the OBC/ EBC/Dalit voters who form the largest chunk. Pertinently, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat, at a meeting in Aligarh on Saturday has given a call for “one well, one temple” for all Hindus in order to “eliminate deep rooted divisions within the Hindu community and foster a collective identity.”
One may argue that such a statement by the RSS chief may be coincidental, but coming as it does on the eve of an election in a major state, it certainly acquires added significance. BJP’s ideological fountainhead RSS has always bailed out its political arm in times of need. The victory in state assemblies of Haryana, Maharashtra and Delhi in the recent past has been ascribed to the RSS. People in the know say RSS had distanced itself from the BJP in the last Lok Sabha elections because of an aggressive and unaccommodating party leadership less willing to pay obeisance to Nagpur. This resulted in reduced Lok Sabha numbers for the party, it is said. The situation has changed of late, according to these sources, and the RSS is now fully backing the BJP, they add.
Will Bihar’s OBC voters be swayed on a mere promise to reform the Hindu society? While it remains to be seen how this section votes, there is little doubt that both camps will try to woo the OBC/EBC/Dalit voters. PM Modi remains a mascot for a substantial section. But the jury is still out for others.
According to two prominent Yadav leaders –one each from the BJP and the JDU— Lalu Yadav continues to be popular among the backwards. However, they picked holes on Tejaswi’s ability to attract them because of his “brash ways”. They admitted, though, there was no way for a leadership change in the RJD.
Most agree that after the passage of the new waqf act, the JDU under Nitish kumar has lost whatever Muslim voters it had. It is clear from the manner in which almost all Muslim leaders resigned from the JDU.
The EBC (extremely backward castes) of Bihar, observers argue, have had less liking for RJD . How they vote will depend upon many factors, like the poll promises of the ruling party and their representation among candidates.