Normally, the southwest monsoon starts withdrawing from western parts of Rajasthan around 1 September.
Eastern end of the axis of monsoon trough would remain south of its normal position during many days of the week, but its western end would oscillate north-south to its normal position.
There will be fairly widespread rainfall over Western Himalayan Region, central and adjoining peninsular India and also along the west coast during many days of the week. Fairly widespread rainfall would also occur over east India during the 1st half of the week and decrease thereafter. Scattered rain/thundershowers would occur over plains of northwest India and northeastern states. Subdued rainfall activity is likely over southeast peninsula.
From 17th of this month,rainfall activity would decrease over northwest India. There is also some possibility of commencement of withdrawal of monsoon from parts of northwest India towards the end of the week. Remaining parts would receive scattered to fairly widespread rainfall activity.
Current synoptic conditions as on today suggests that A low pressure area lies over south Pakistan and adjoining southwest Rajasthan & Kutch area with associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto midtropospheric levels tilting southwestwards with height. Another low pressure area lies over Jharkhand & adjoining Gangetic West Bengal.
This is associated with upper air cyclonic circulation extending upto mid tropospheric levels. A western disturbance as an upper air cyclonic circulation lies over Jammu & Kashmir and neighbourhood. he axis of monsoon trough at mean sea level passes through centre of low pressure area (near Jaisalmer), Bharatpur, Allahabad, central of low pressure area (near Jamshedpur), Diamond Harbour and thence southeastwards to northeast Bay of Bengal. A feeble off shore trough ran from Gujarat coast to Kerala coast.
Seasonal rainfall from 1st June till today shows out of 36 meteorological subdivisions, the rainfall has been excess over 08, normal over 24 and deficient in 04 (mainly over east & northeast India) sub-divisions. In area-wise distribution, 91% area of the country received excess/normal rainfall. 464 (77%) out of 603 districts of the country have received normal to excess rainfall.