Nifty Rebounds to 24,200 as IT Gains Offset Geopolitical Woes

BIZ DESK

Indian equity markets staged a modest recovery on Monday, reversing early declines to close marginally higher, buoyed by strong buying in information technology stocks. The Nifty 50 index managed to hold above the 24,200 mark after rebounding from an intraday low of 24,000.20, while the Sensex also eked out gains. Investor sentiment was shaped by stock-specific developments amid the ongoing first-quarter earnings season, even as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East loomed large.

Market Performance

• Sensex: Gained 47.04 points, or 0.06%, to close at 77,616.40.
• Nifty 50: Rose 4.10 points, or 0.02%, to settle at 24,211.

The day’s highlight was the Nifty IT index, which surged 3.6%, led by a 5.5% rally in Tata Consultancy Services (TCS). Other IT majors including HCL Technologies, Infosys, and Tech Mahindra also posted strong gains. Consumer durables stocks advanced, while FMCG and metal counters weighed on the indices.

Among the major drags were HDFC Bank (-0.90%), Bharti Airtel (-0.87%), and Reliance Industries (-0.83%).

In the broader market, the BSE 150 MidCap Index rose 0.02% and the BSE 250 SmallCap Index gained 0.25%. Market breadth remained positive, with 2,335 shares advancing against 2,068 declines on the BSE.

Volatility spiked, with the India VIX climbing 8.38% to 13.28, reflecting heightened investor caution.

Economic Indicators

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened sharply to $30.43 billion in June 2026, compared with $19.12 billion a year earlier. This marks the largest deficit ever recorded for June and the widest gap since January.

• Imports: Jumped 31% YoY to $70.84 billion, driven by higher crude oil prices amid Middle East tensions and additional costs linked to U.S. tariffs on Russian oil.
• Exports: Rose 15.5% YoY to $40.4 billion, supported by strong shipments to the U.S. ahead of the expiry of the current India-U.S. trade arrangement in July.

Other key numbers:

• 10-year G-sec yield: Rose to 6.735%.
• Rupee: Weakened to 95.67 against the dollar.
• Gold futures: Fell 0.94% to ₹142,133.
• Brent crude: Climbed 3.07% to $78.34 per barrel.
• US Dollar Index (DXY): Slightly lower at 101.94.

Global Market Overview

European markets traded higher, while Asian equities ended mostly lower as investors digested escalating Middle East tensions. Over the weekend, Iran claimed to have targeted U.S. military facilities and announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, though U.S. President Donald Trump dismissed the claim, asserting the waterway remained open.

In South Korea, SK Hynix shares fell 5% after a sharp rally in the previous session.

On Wall Street, U.S. indices closed higher:

• Dow Jones: +0.29% at 52,637.01
• S&P 500: +0.42% at 7,575.39
• Nasdaq Composite: +0.29% at 26,281.61

Investors are bracing for a busy earnings week, with major U.S. banks and corporates including Netflix, Johnson & Johnson, and UnitedHealth set to report results.

Stocks in Focus

• TCS: Jumped 5.51%, leading IT gains.
• HCL Tech, Infosys, Tech Mahindra: Each rose over 3%.
• LTIMindtree: Up 2.25% after reporting a 5.86% QoQ rise in net profit.
• NMDC: Fell 0.80% after cutting iron ore prices.
• Fino Payments Bank: Surged 19.64% on strong deposit growth.
• Just Dial: Hit 20% upper circuit after reporting a 66.2% jump in net profit.
• L&T Finance: Rose 1.07% on robust quarterly earnings.
• 63 Moons Technologies: Gained 7.81% after subsidiary secured a large order book.
• Avantel: Up 1.42% on strong profit growth.
• Bajaj Consumer Care: Declined 1.53% despite higher profits, as margins remained under scrutiny.
• Indus Towers: Rose 0.71% after appointing Abhishek Maheshwari as CFO.

IPO Update

The Laser Power & Infra IPO continued to attract strong demand. As of 16:27 IST, the issue was subscribed 38.76 times, receiving bids for 99.17 crore shares against 2.55 crore shares on offer. The IPO, priced between ₹203–214 per share, will close on 13 July 2026.

Outlook

Despite geopolitical uncertainties and a widening trade deficit, Indian equities managed to hold firm, supported by sectoral strength in IT and select mid- and small-cap counters. With earnings season in full swing, stock-specific action is expected to dominate market trends in the near term. Rising crude prices and currency weakness, however, remain key risks that could weigh on investor sentiment.

As global markets brace for U.S. corporate earnings and monitor developments in the Middle East, volatility is likely to persist, keeping traders on edge.