Last Updated on May 16, 2023 1:41 am by INDIAN AWAAZ
By Kushal Jeena
By the end of this year and early next year a total of five states are set to go to polls and the outcome of assembly elections in these crucial states would clear the picture of next year bound Lok Sabha elections because of these five states, four are in the Hindi heartland where currently ruling BJP dominates and only the northeastern state of Mizoram hardly has any political significance. In Telengana the contest is going to be very interesting as it would be a multi-corner fight. The four north Indian states are Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and
Of the three Hindi-speaking states, the BJP currently rules only in Madhya Pradesh whereas Congress is in power in the remaining two states of Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. Telengana is ruled by a local region party named Bharat Rashtra Samiti.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP has been in power since 2003. In previous assembly polls in MP the Congress managed to wrest power but the BJP returned by splitting the Congress legislative party. However, this time also people’s mood appears against the ruling party because it has messed up with the state economy.
Though both the parties are facing trouble from within, the BJP’s power struggle seems more serious than the opposition because, the high command of the ruling party seems to have decided to put a fresh face to counter a strong anti-incumbency that has been prevailing against the chief minister Shivraj Singh Chavan. Both prime minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah are in favour of projecting Jyotiraditya Scindia as chief minister this time, but the move has met with strong opposition by Chauhan who if denied another term has potential to cut party’s vote bank because ruling a state for last 20 years cannot be ignored.
Similarly, in Rajasthan the main challenge for the BJP is to handle Vashundhra Raje Scindia because without her support, it is not easy for the BJP to oust the government of Ashok Gehlot of the Congress party. Modi and Shah don’t have friendly relations with Vasundhra and bent upon to replace her despite knowing fully that she controls party MLAs. Interestingly, she is on very good terms with Gehlot and had helped her in retaining power when Sachin Pilot had revolted first. She has also been instrumental in blocking Pilot’s entry into the BJP fold. This equation is the reason behind high command refraining from projecting any alternative to counter Vasundhara.
The banner of revolt that Pilot has been raising time and again has very little political significance because he has held only 14 assembly constituencies whereas Gehlot is quite a popular political figure who has the capacity to bring Congress back to power. The Congress leadership is aware of this fact and precisely for that reason Gehlot continues to rule the state. In these circumstances, the outcome of Rajasthan assembly polls can easily be described as unpredictable.
In Chhattisgarh, Congress seems to be better placed not because Baghel government has done miracles during his rule but the failure of the BJP on two counts; first failing to keep its leaders together and secondly failing to project a popular leader. The entry of one of the most popular leaders of the BJP in state Nand Kumar Sai in the congress has caused a serious damage to the party as it has already dumped its two time chief minister Raman Singh. The central leadership of the BJP seems careless about the fate of this tribal state and Congress is better placed by virtue of BJP complacency.
In southern Telengana that goes to poll later this year, there is likely to be a multi-cornered contest because all political parties so far have not entered into any election alliance. The ruling Bharat Rashtra Samiti might get electoral benefit of the contest because here BJP is relatively a small party that has no electoral partner. The Congress is also facing the same situation, but it has more strength in comparison than BJP because of its old roots in the region. The third entrant is the Telgu Desam party that is presently ruling Andhra Pradesh and for being part of earlier united Andhra Pradesh it might stand second.