Zakir Hossain from Dhaka
A new nationwide survey has revealed a shifting political landscape in Bangladesh– with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), long regarded as one of the country’s most popular and influential political forces, now leading voter preference in six of the eight divisions. The survey shows Jamaat-e-Islami ahead in Rangpur, while the banned Awami League surprisingly tops voter support in Barishal.
The findings come from the “People’s Election Pulse Survey (Part II – Volume III)” conducted by private research organization Innovision Consulting. The results were released on Monday (October 13) during a roundtable discussion held in Dhaka, moderated by Fahim Mashroor, co-convener of the platform Voice for Reform.
Panelists at the discussion included Dr. Asif Shahan, Dr. Nakibur Rahman of Jamaat-e-Islami, Khaled Saifullah of the National Consensus Party (NCP), policy analyst Dr. Ananya Raihan, journalist Moktadir Rashid of Bangla Outlook, and Dr. Shafiqul Rahman of the research firm Brain. The presentation was delivered by Rubaiyat Sarwar, Managing Director of Inovision.
According to the survey, the BNP leads in most regions:
Dhaka Division: BNP 40.8%, Awami League 25.8%, Jamaat 24.3%; Chattogram Division: BNP 41.9%, Jamaat 27.6%, Awami League 17.1%; Rajshahi Division: BNP 44.4%, Jamaat 40.9%, Awami League 9.2%; Khulna Division: BNP 43.3%, Jamaat 30.1%, Awami League 18.3%; Mymensingh Division: BNP 45.7%, Jamaat 25.8%, Awami League 17.3%; Sylhet Division: BNP 44.7%, Jamaat 29.6%, Awami League 14%; Rangpur Division: Jamaat leads with 43.4%, followed by BNP 36.7% and Awami League 12.5%; and Barishal Division: Awami League tops with 31.9%, followed by Jamaat 29.1% and BNP 28.7%.
Overall, the survey places BNP as the most preferred political party nationwide, followed by Jamaat-e-Islami in second place, the Awami League in third, and the National Consensus Party (NCP) in fourth.
Inovision reported that the study was conducted among 10,413 respondents across all 64 districts of Bangladesh. Of these, 69.5% were from rural areas and 30.5% from urban areas. The gender breakdown included 54.2% male, 45.4% female, and 0.4% third gender participants.
By age group, Generation Z (18–28 years) made up 37.6%, Millennials (29–44 years) 33.4%, Generation X (45–60 years) 19.8%, and voters above 60 years 1.3%.
In terms of regional representation, respondents were distributed as follows: Dhaka 25.6%, Chattogram 20%, Rajshahi 15%, Khulna 11.2%, Rangpur 11%, Mymensingh 9.5%, Barishal 6.2%, and Sylhet 5.3%.
The survey was conducted between September 2 and 15, in collaboration with research groups Brain and Voice for Reform. The first segment of the survey focused on the election environment and the interim government’s performance, while the second explored voter preferences, party approval ratings, electoral choices, Bangladesh’s relations with India and Pakistan, and public expectations from the next government.