Last Updated on October 21, 2025 7:23 pm by INDIAN AWAAZ
Zakir Hossain from Dhaka
Former Bangladesh Army Chief General (retired) Iqbal Karim Bhuiyan has said that the current interim government in Bangladesh is likely to stay in power for another one to two years, after which the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has a strong possibility of assuming power through elections.
In the concluding part of a series of analytical posts shared on Facebook on Monday (October 20), the retired general wrote, “This analysis is entirely based on my own thoughts, experiences, and objective observations. It is rooted in the post–August 5 developments and their multi-dimensional socio-political repercussions. The July Charter, constitutional reforms, and the upcoming national elections— all have gained new direction in the wake of the student uprising that began on August 5.”
Bhuiyan, known for his measured commentary on national affairs, further said, “If the BNP fails to contain the planned wave of violence and counter-movements against it, Bangladesh might witness a repeat of the 1/11 scenario,” he cautioned— referring to the political crisis and emergency rule that gripped the country in January 2007.
The former army chief added that if the interim administration falters due to inefficiency, deteriorating law and order, or excessive pressure from student groups demanding reforms, it may choose to extend its tenure instead of holding elections. “In that case, weaker ministers may be replaced, and a consensus-based national government could be formed with Dr. Muhammad Yunus as President,” he wrote.
He also warned that any loud call for constitutional change could lead the country into a prolonged period of transition. “The next five years could be consumed by the election of a constituent assembly, the drafting of a new constitution, and a national referendum. Whatever happens, Bangladesh will have to endure years of confusion, unrest, protests, strikes, blockades, and political violence. A crippled economy will push the poor further into hardship, and the nation will continue to slide backward in key socio-economic indicators.”
Bhuiyan concluded by saying that his assessment may not align with the positions of political parties or ideological camps, but that is the nature of a democratic society. “I have tried to present the situation with professional neutrality and a realistic evaluation. There is no personal belief, party loyalty, or political bias involved— only logical analysis of events forms the foundation of this writing,” he stated.