By S Bhatnagar, Market Strategist
Markets are likely to post modest-to-flat returns next year as investors digest a stunning 30 percent rally on the Sensex that came in despite the lack of earnings growth during 2017. A series of state elections next year and the possibility of higher-than-anticipated fiscal deficit may also prune expectations during 2018.
Rural focussed companies will be in the thick of action as the government increases spending to stave off a nationwide farm distress ahead of four state elections in the first half of next year and a similar number in the second half of 2018.
Meanwhile, stocks were on fire all through this year as liquidity raced through the economy. Even the botched up nationwide implementation of the Goods and Services Tax and the after effects of the previous year’s demonetization drive failed to affect investor enthusiasm for shares. Such was the mad buying frenzy that 42 out of 50 shares comprising the S&P CNX Nifty index surged between 4.5-111 percent during 2017. And the Nifty’s 30 percent gain was modest compared to some of its other index peers that jumped between 35-113 percent during this year.
So, what drove markets higher in 2017? In one simple word: Liquidity. Investors poured in more than 1.15 lakh crore rupees in domestic mutual funds and that sparked a massive rally. This amount was the highest ever into stocks and shares as domestic investors removed money from gold, real estate and fixed deposits to chase potentially higher returns from equities. Foreign funds, too, joined the party adding more than 48,000 crore rupees to Indian shares.
Foreigners, local investors, fund managers, strategists and retail investors seem fully convinced that Prime Minister Narendra Modi will deliver on all his promises made during the stunning electoral victory of 2014, never mind that there are just 2 years left and most of his assurances remain unfulfilled. To be fair, India’s economy, despite all its hiccups, has been a shining beacon in a global street full of worry. And that is the reason why money continues to flow into local stocks even in the absence of strong economic news.
Investors expect Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party to continue its electoral winning streak in the forthcoming 8 state elections during 2018. In December, the BJP narrowly came back to power in Gujarat for the 6th time and wrested Himachal Pradesh from the Congress. The states that go to polls next year are Karnataka, Mizoram, Meghalaya, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan. The market expects the BJP government to go all out to woo farmers and the rural population in these states in a bid to win new states and retain existing strongholds such as MP and Rajasthan.
So, what should you as an investor do? Well, if you are already invested, remain so. There is no point selling this rally so early in the game. More gains are ahead. If you haven’t dipped your toe in equities so far, then start with a simple systematic investment plan in an equity diversified fund. Invest regularly over the next 3-4 years to benefit from a potentially sharp rise in share values.