Devsagar Singh / New Delhi
The Modi Government has acknowledged how fragile it is by withdrawing within 24 hours the UPSC advertisement for lateral entry into senior positions following opposition by its allies. It had taken over a year to withdraw controversial farm laws despite prolonged massive nationwide protests during NDA two when the BJP had full majority on its own.
Clearly, the Prime Minister cannot take any major decision without taking the concurrence of the allies which looked inconsequential by their size but so crucial for his existence. Imagine the LJP with hardly five Lok Sabha seats dictating terms. Its leader Chirag Paswan was beholden to the BJP for accommodating his party into the alliance. Even JD(U), whose leader and Bihar CM Nitish Kumar found new lease of life because of his re-entry into BJP, flexed its muscles on the issue to show Modi his place.
This has led political watchers to surmise Modi’s fate into his third term as PM. Will he be able to complete his full term? The question looms large on the eve of assembly elections this year to four states –Haryana, J and K (whose polling schedule has been announced), Maharashtra and Jharkhand. The chips are down for the BJP in all these states at the present reckoning. An adverse result for Modi, the party mascot, will likely push him to the corner. A strong Opposition will push its case for Modi’s ouster , if only on moral grounds, while risky allies like TDP may become more demanding.
What , then, makes Modi push for a uniform civil code as he did vociferously from the ramparts of the Red Fort during his Independece Day speech? If he cannot go ahead with a smaller issue like lateral entry of some mid-level bureaucrats, how does he think he can sail through the controversial UCC which requires parliamentary approval? Observers believe the Prime Minister raised the civil code issue only to polarise voters for the upcoming state elections. For the same reason, they further believe, the waqf property matter was also raised.
It is no one’s case that the Prime Minister will buckle easily. As has been his wont, Modi loved taking challenges and also sailed through several, the biggest being the Gujarat riots. But those times were different. The first five years of Modi rule at the Centre were full of euphoria. In the second term Modi basked under increased Lok Sabha tally. The third has just begun with reduced Parliamentary seats. The fatigue seems to be setting in the BJP as well. That the party did not do well in UP in the last Lok Sabha polls weighs heavy on him and his party. The friction between the UP Chief Minister and the Centre (read Modi and Shah) is not hidden any more.
Evidently, his popularity is in the downswing. Consider his performance in the Varanasi Lok Sabha constituency. The victory margin nosedived compared to his previous two records. It is in these circumstances that the Prime Minister is trying to navigate.
The catharsis would, perhaps, come through UP when the state goes for the assembly polls in 2027. If Modi is able to save the state, albeit through CM Yogi, for the BJP, he would strengthen himself as the Prime Minister. Else, this could be the last chance for him. If the party loses the poll, there is little chance of his completing the full term as PM. He might himself give up in that case allowing time to the BJP to prepare for a new leadership for 2029 when parliamentary polls will be due.