TN Ashok / New Delhi
Is it curtains down on Amma’s regime? Three out of four exit polls predict bigger numbers for the DMK Congress combine than for Amma’s lone AIADMK.
An Axis-My India exit poll suggests that DMK could be ahead by 124 to 130 seats ahead of AIADMK’s 89 to 101 seats. A News Nation exit poll suggests DMK could be ahead of the AIADMK by 114 to 118 seats enough to form the government on its own. An ABP exit poll predicts DMK could garner 134 seats a comfortable majority in the 234 member state assembly against AIADMK’s 95 seats.
Only C voter exit polls suggests the return of AIADMK led by CM Jayalalithat with 139 seats against DMK’s 78, which itself is a comedown for the charismatic film star turned politician who swept the polls in 2011 crushing DMK with 203 seats and reducing the DMK to under 30 seats.
While its true that none of the exit polls may get it absolutely right to be bang on the final results, one thing is clear that the AIADMK is returning with reduced numbers. Even the most optimistic C Voter has reduced AIADMK’s strength from 203 to 139, which is down by 64 seats which is a colossus loss for a charismatic leader.
What could make some of the exit polls realistic in its predictions is the high voter turn out despite inclement weather and heavy rains in almost most parts of Tamil Nadu today on the crucial voting day. At the final count election commission put the voting percentage at around 73.85%, say close to 74%.
Psephologists claim that a higher voter turnout is always against the incumbent rule and never for a ruling party. This puts paid to the result that Amma could actually lose an important election.
Here are some factors that makes one suspect that Amma’s charisma, her numerous welfare schemes ranging from low cost canteens to low cost veggies to low cost pharmacy stores could actually not offset the disconnect she has suffered from the masses , her voter base, for the last two years due to her protracted illness that has kept her away from public appearances. Also, three to four of the districts that bore the brunt of the monsoon fury and floods could have actually turned the ire of the people against failure of government machinery to organise relief on time as people suffered huge losses. Chennai city, Chengalpattu, are among four districts that bore the brunt. Some 60 to 70 assembly segments were involved.
On the contrary, the DMK started its election campaign fairly early atleast seven to eight months with DMK Treasurer and former Deputy CM MK Stalin travelling widely throughout the state and connecting with people asking them to bring about a change. He has stressed that DMK would bring in progress and employment. TASMAC the government owned agency that distributes liquor through the state has also earned the displeasure of the women voters even though it raised a colossal Rs 40,000 crore in excise revenue .
Not just the DMK but also the four party alliance of Progressive Welfare Front has campaigned against liquor sales and promosing to usher in prohibition to woo the women voters. The trick might have just about worked.
While its advisable to hold onto one’s horses till the actual election results are declared on May 19, the high percentage of voting and the powerful campaign launched through TV and wide travel through all districts by MK Stalin connecting with people does not augur well for Jayalalitha.
She has suffered a total disconnect with the people for the last two years due to her illness and her welfare scheme does not seem to outweigh the sufferings of the people in the flood fury when government machinery failed to rescue the people even as reliefs in terms of cash and kind were organised by the party. There are horrendous stories of government relief not reaching the people but hijacked by party workers of the ruling elite.