Last Updated on November 26, 2025 4:09 pm by INDIAN AWAAZ
R. Suryamurthy
India has projected a modest rise in foodgrain production for the 2025-26 kharif season, even as erratic rainfall patterns left parts of the country facing significant crop stress. The first advance estimates released on Wednesday by Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan peg total kharif foodgrain output at 173.3 million tonnes, up 3.87 million tonnes from last year’s comparable estimate.
The ministry highlighted record increases in several major crops — particularly rice, maize, and oilseeds — crediting “continuous positive efforts” in the farm sector under Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership. Yet the estimates, built on ground reports and state submissions, mask uneven monsoon behaviour that could still alter the final production figures.
Rice, Maize Lead Gains
Kharif rice production is projected at 124.5 million tonnes, about 1.7 million tonnes higher than last year. Maize is expected to see a sharper expansion, with output estimated at 28.3 million tonnes, a significant 3.5-million-tonne increase from 2024-25.
The ministry said that although excessive rainfall damaged crops in certain regions, “most areas benefited from a good monsoon,” supporting higher yields for rice and coarse cereals.
Total production of nutri/millets is estimated at 41.4 million tonnes, while kharif pulses output is projected at 7.41 million tonnes. Within pulses, the government expects 3.60 million tonnes of tur, 1.20 million tonnes of urad, and 1.72 million tonnes of moong.
Oilseeds Jump, Soybean Output Rises
India’s oilseed basket is also expected to post a sharp increase. The ministry projects 27.56 million tonnes of total kharif oilseeds, including 11.09 million tonnes of groundnut — about 0.68 million tonnes more than last year — and 14.27 million tonnes of soybean.
Cotton production is estimated at 29.2 million bales (each of 170 kg) and jute and mesta at 8.34 million bales (180 kg).
Sugarcane output is projected at 475.6 million tonnes, a notable 21-million-tonne increase over last year, reinforcing expectations of stable supplies for the sugar industry, though the sector continues to be influenced by global prices and domestic restrictions on exports.
Analytical Context: Gains with Caveats
The headline increase offers some relief for policymakers battling food inflation pressures earlier this year. A stronger kharif harvest typically eases price spikes in rice, pulses, and edible oils — commodities that have been flashing inflationary signals due to global disruptions and domestic supply tightness.
However, the numbers come with familiar caveats. Advance estimates are often revised once actual crop-cutting experiment data starts coming in. In recent years, the spread between early estimates and final production has widened due to climate volatility.
Moreover, farm economists note that higher output alone may not translate into better farm incomes unless procurement operations pick up and mandi prices stabilise. The gains in maize and soybean, for instance, coincide with global softening in feed and oilseed prices.
The uneven monsoon also means production gains are clustered in certain geographies, while vulnerable districts — particularly in eastern and peninsular India — absorbed yield losses. This raises renewed concerns over the fragility of India’s rain-dependent farm structure despite rising public investment.
What Comes Next
The ministry has indicated that revised estimates will incorporate post-harvest data and crop-cutting results. For now, the projections offer an optimistic early picture — one that suggests India’s kharif season has avoided major shortfalls but still sits exposed to weather-related uncertainty and price risks.