Exit Polls Signal Cliffhanger Ahead of May 4 Results
By Aafreen Hussain in Kolkata
The 2026 West Bengal Assembly elections have emerged as one of the most closely watched political contests in India, featuring a direct battle between the Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
Exit polls released after the final phase of voting suggest a dramatic and uncertain outcome, setting the stage for a high-stakes result day on May 4.
What Exit Polls Indicate: A Tight Race
Across major agencies, the picture remains fragmented and highly competitive:
- Most exit polls point to a neck-and-neck contest between TMC and BJP
- Some projections give BJP a slight edge and even cross the majority mark (148 seats)
- A few polls predict a TMC comeback with strong numbers
- The overall “poll of polls” indicates a strong possibility of a hung assembly
Indicative Seat Projections
- TMC (AITC+): ~110 to 180 seats
- BJP: ~140 to 175 seats
- Left (CPI(M)) + Congress: ~0 to 10 seats
- ISF: Marginal presence
- AIMIM: Negligible or no seats projected
- Others: Small numbers, but potentially crucial in a hung assembly
Notably, some projections suggest TMC may drop to around 140 seats while BJP makes significant gains.
Where Parties Stand
Trinamool Congress (TMC)
- Facing its toughest electoral challenge in years
- Still projected as either the largest party or a close second
- Banking on welfare schemes and strong women voter support
Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
- Emerging as the principal challenger
- Exit polls hint at a possible historic breakthrough in Bengal
Left Front & Congress
- Continued marginalisation predicted
- May play a supporting role in case of a hung assembly
ISF & AIMIM
- Limited electoral impact
- Could influence outcomes in closely contested constituencies
Political Reactions
BJP Leadership
Narendra Modi expressed confidence in a “fearless change,” while Amit Shah led an aggressive campaign across the state.
Leaders like Suvendu Adhikari claim the party will “form government comfortably.”
TMC Leadership
Mamata Banerjee dismissed exit polls, predicting a two-thirds majority (200+ seats).
Abhishek Banerjee and other leaders remain confident, citing past inaccuracies in exit polls.
Opposition (Left & Congress)
Leaders suggest high voter turnout reflects political polarisation, though they are not expected to gain significantly.
Key Trends
- Exceptionally high voter turnout in several phases
- Sharp polarisation between TMC and BJP
- Regional variations in voter preferences
- Welfare-driven support vs anti-incumbency sentiment
What to Expect on May 4
Possible Scenarios
1. BJP Majority
- First BJP government in West Bengal
- Major political shift in eastern India
2. TMC Retains Power
- Mamata Banerjee secures another term
- Exit polls prove inaccurate again
3. Hung Assembly (Most Likely)
- Smaller parties and independents become kingmakers
- Possibility of post-poll alliances
Final Analysis
The 2026 West Bengal election is shaping into a political cliffhanger. Exit polls remain divided—some predicting a BJP surge, others a TMC comeback—while many agree that the outcome could go either way.
With stakes high for both Narendra Modi and Mamata Banerjee, the results on May 4 are expected to carry implications far beyond the state, potentially shaping the national political landscape.