and political tie-up that had stood the test of time until the 2G scam broke out and rocked the boat.
With hardly a month to go for the TN Assembly Polls and a new government has to be in place before May 13 – neither party can afford a break-up at this critical juncture.
Also, the fact that the DMK ministers have not submitted their resignations, contrary to their stand that they would do so by 11am Monday, shows that last ditch negations are on , subsequent to the call Finance Minister, Mr. Pranab Mukherjee had with the DMK Supremo Karunanidhi.
What apparently irritated the DMK to threaten to break the alliance and offer only conditional support and to pull out their ministers was over the sudden decision to increase the number of seats offered from 60 to 63 and that Congress would decide the constituencies they would want to contest.
These decisions took the DMK Supremo completely by surprise. DMK felt that it had upped the number of seats to 60 from 48 since the last assembly elections and it was quite lot for a party which had no political base worth talking about – totally eroded since the regional parties came to power in the state since the late sixties. Congress has been able to win any seats only in alliance with other regional parties but never on its own.
Given this background, DMK had reasons to believe that the Congress was using the investigations on 2G scam and incarceration of the Telecom Minister A Raja as apparently a bargaining chip to wrest more seats and decide the constituencies. Well it went to a point to make the compromise but felt humiliated when the demand kept increasing. Three more seats atop an already discussed and sealed 60 seemed to be the last straw on the camel’s back. Also, repeated requests to the centre to go easy on the investigations before the polls and the virtual tirade against A Raja left a bitter taste. In other words, the DMK was just waiting to strike. The congress gave it on a platter, thanks to the pressures from the Union Home Minister P Chidambram to accommodate his candidates.
The DMK’s uneasy relationship with Mr Chidambaram is well known. And it simply was not willing to accommodate him this time. It had bailed him out of the election verdict crisis the last time for which it felt he was not grateful to them.
In view of these developments and background , that the DMK threatened to break the alliance over break down of talks on a mere three seats adjustment for the upcoming assembly polls defies all logic. DMK is a cadre based party which enjoys a clear 28% of the committed votes in Tamil Nadu and with cobbling up of an effective alliance; its poll strength rises to 47% (including the ongress). The DMK certainly cannot afford to lose this % that is the extra 19% that the allies including the congress bring to the table, which is a clincher.
The DMK wants to send out a message loud and clear that when it comes to state politics; it is the boss and not the Congress. As the Congress was unrelenting in its pursuit of the 2G scam, thanks t the Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh, and not willing to accommodate it, it was time to call of the bluff and not submit to political blackmail.
The DMK strongly believes that the arm twisting by the Congress trying to project itself as a holier than thou attitude was not logical as it was itself plagued by the Commonwealth scam, the controversy over the appointment of the CVC now struck down by the Supreme court, and certainly could have gone slow on the CBI investigations into the 2G scam and not taken the extreme step of arresting A Raja, which certainly does not go well down before the election campaign hits the dirt in a fortnight.
DMK is not foolish to withdraw from the UPA led alliance. With the ongoing investigations into 2G scam, it would like to contain it rather than allow it to escalate by breaking away from the ongress. This the Congress is gambling on for sure to wrest more seats and retain support at the centre. But will the gamble pay off is the question – though it has assurances that Samajwadi led by Mulayam Singh Yadav will offer its 22 member support to the Congress even if the DMK’s 18 withdraw support.
Let’s look at the issues in perspective and what is likely to emerge.
Scenario 1:
If Congress and DMK part ways and Congress woos AIADMK .Such a scenario is fraught with grave consequences for both. One, AIADMK has already
patched up an alliance with the DMDK led by actor turned politician “Captain” Vijay Kanth. The AIADMK will find it difficult to offer 60 seats to the Congress because it would like to gamble on more number of seats on its own as the winds of change may favour it , what with so many controversies and scams dogging the DMK and the Congress. So the Congress has no option but to compromise and stay with DMK in the alliance as it stands a better chance at the hustings.
The DMK is gambling on the fact that the freebies worth over Rs 4,000 crore distributed during its 2nd innings , such as free TV sets to ration card holders, rice at rs one per kg , and the insurance scheme of “ Kalaingar kapittu thittam” will sway the voters. Long before other parties were cobbling up an alliance, DMK has already fanned out into the villages and semi urban centers to begin its campaign on these strong points.
Political pundits say the 2G scam may have a marginal impact on the electorate in the very urban centres such as metropolitan cities and might not impact voters in the villages and semi urban centres, once the stronghold of Ms Jayalalitha’s AIADMK which the DMK has successfully eroded.
Scenario 2:
Congress goes alone, DMK and AIADMK goes with their allies.This will result in the virtual rout of the Congress at the elections as the congress has never tested its strength alone in the last 20 years and more over it has no leader of a mass base to challenge the charisma of either Karunanidhi and Jayalalitha – the last congress leader with charisma was Kamaraj and people who could have led like C Subramaniam or R Venkatraman , who were responsible for the states early agriculture and industrial development, migrated to the centre, leaving the Congress with no big leaders to follow.
This appears to be the dream of Rahul Gandhi, who wants to build the Congress on its own strengths. He wants to recapture UP, MP, Chattisgarh, Bihar, once and the strongholds of Congress. Good dream but difficult task indeed. Bihar is a bad example of ongress going alone. It will face the same fate in Tamil Nadu.
Congress has virtually lost its base in South too – Karnataka is ruled by BJP led opposition, Tamil Nadu has alternated between the DMK and AIDMK with congress piggy backing on either of the two whenever it suited them, Kerala has alternated between the left parties and the Congress. At present Kerala is under the CPI-M rule now. Orissa is under Naveen Patnaiks’s Bharatiya Janata Dal and Bihar is under Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal United.
Congress has derived its strength more from its coalition partners at the national level and not on its own. It has to remember this clearly before it decides to go alone which is nothing short of political hara kiri. It cannot bank on a miracle as poll arithmetic is quite clear in Tamil Nadu.
Scenario 3:
Congress goes with AIADMK or a forms a 3rd front and DMK goes alone with its allies.A rather remote possibility right now as AIADMK has already sewn in place its seat sharing with DMDK and will find it difficult to arrive at a seat sharing arrangement with the Congress. But in the event AIADMK is foolish to accommodate Congress at its own cost, which it is not, then the entire poll scenario would change. DMK will be under virtual threat. Will AIADMK take the gamble is the big question, considering that if the congress can dump a trusted ally such as the DMK after seven years , there is no guarantee it will not do so with it at the centre or in the state. So the AIADMK might want congress to go it alone right now and patch up a post electoral alliance rather than a pre electoral alliance.
A 3rd front would have been possible only with PMK and the DMDK , both of whom have already aligned themselves with the DMK and AIADMK respectively. Aligning with the left parties is the only option but they are not great vote catchers in Tamil Nadu.
If wisdom prevails in both the DMK and Congress flanks, they have a better future staying together rather than separating, because both parties have scams to rub off the electorate before voting begins. Neither can shrug the other thinking distancing itself may bring it the votes it needs. Not likely.