Crude and Geopolitical Risks Keep Investors Cautious
BY Our Business Correspondent
Indian equity markets ended Monday’s trading session with marginal gains as investors remained cautious amid a mixed corporate earnings picture, persistent geopolitical uncertainty and concerns over crude oil prices. The benchmark indices moved within a narrow range for much of the session as market participants assessed the latest batch of first-quarter financial results for FY2026-27 and monitored developments surrounding tensions between the United States and Iran.
The introduction of the Closing Auction Session (CAS) mechanism last week also remained on investors’ radar. The new mechanism had contributed to increased volatility towards the final minutes of trading in recent sessions, prompting market participants to closely watch the behaviour of benchmark indices and individual stocks during the closing phase.
At the close, the S&P BSE Sensex gained 43.27 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 78,542.44, while the Nifty 50 advanced 13.15 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 24,583.80. The Nifty managed to finish above the psychologically important 24,550 level, but the extremely limited gains reflected the market’s cautious stance. Contemporary market reports also described the session as largely range-bound, with concerns over the Middle East and crude prices offsetting support from domestic earnings and softer expectations of an immediate US rate increase.
Private banks, consumer stocks provide support
Buying interest was visible in select private-sector banking, consumer and jewellery counters. Titan Company rose 3.02 per cent, emerging as one of the strongest contributors to the Nifty after reporting a substantial improvement in quarterly profitability. Bajaj Finance gained 2.24 per cent, while ICICI Bank advanced 0.76 per cent.
Titan’s strong performance followed the company’s announcement that consolidated profit after tax increased 62.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,777 crore in the June quarter. Total income rose 29.3 per cent to Rs 21,502 crore.
However, gains in the broader market were restricted by selling pressure in several PSU banking and oil and gas stocks. The divergence between individual sectors reflected the market’s focus on company-specific earnings rather than a broad-based risk-on move.
In the broader market, the BSE 150 MidCap Index gained 0.17 per cent, while the BSE 250 SmallCap Index rose 0.04 per cent. Market breadth, nevertheless, remained almost evenly balanced and marginally negative. On the BSE, 2,225 shares advanced, while 2,226 declined and 207 remained unchanged.
The India VIX, which measures the market’s expectation of near-term volatility, increased 1.41 per cent to 12.33, signalling that investors continued to retain a degree of caution despite the relatively stable headline indices.
Crude oil and rupee remain key concerns
Geopolitical developments continued to influence investor sentiment, particularly because of their potential implications for global energy supplies. Escalating tensions involving the United States and Iran and uncertainty surrounding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz kept crude oil prices elevated.
Brent crude for October 2026 delivery rose 46 cents, or 0.55 per cent, to $84.01 a barrel, according to the figures available during the session. Higher crude prices remain a concern for India because the country is heavily dependent on imports to meet its energy requirements. A sustained rise in international oil prices could put pressure on the country’s import bill, inflation, corporate margins and the rupee.
The Indian currency weakened marginally against the US dollar. The partially convertible rupee was quoted at 95.3050 per dollar, compared with the previous close of 95.1750.
The domestic bond market remained relatively stable. The yield on India’s benchmark 10-year government security eased to 6.764 per cent, from 6.766 per cent in the previous session.
Gold prices also moved higher, with MCX Gold futures for October 5, 2026 settlement rising 0.38 per cent to Rs 1,52,400.
In international currency markets, the US Dollar Index rose 0.16 per cent to 99.70, while the US 10-year Treasury yield eased 0.02 per cent to 4.659 per cent.
Global markets mixed
Global equity markets presented a mixed picture. Most European markets traded lower as renewed concerns over the US-Iran confrontation and the Strait of Hormuz weighed on risk appetite.
Asian markets, however, largely ended higher after weaker-than-expected US employment data reduced expectations of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs. At the same time, uncertainty over developments in the Gulf continued to support crude oil prices.
Iran said on Sunday that discussions with Oman over the establishment of new shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz were nearing completion. Tehran, however, maintained that the waterway would reopen only after the United States met additional conditions, keeping uncertainty over the strategically important shipping route alive.
In Japan, policymakers at the Bank of Japan highlighted rising inflation risks that could justify a faster pace of monetary tightening. The summary of opinions from the central bank’s July meeting strengthened market expectations that the BOJ could consider another rate increase as early as September.
US jobs data changes rate expectations
Wall Street had ended higher on Friday after fresh US employment data showed an unexpected contraction in payrolls in July, reducing expectations of an immediate Federal Reserve rate hike.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 151.83 points, or 0.28 per cent, to 54,036.93, while the S&P 500 gained 47.68 points, or 0.62 per cent, to 7,757.64. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 342.26 points, or 1.30 per cent, to 26,690.62.
According to the US Labor Department, non-farm payrolls declined by 23,000 in July, sharply below market expectations for an increase of about 80,000. Payroll growth for the preceding two months was also revised significantly lower.
The unemployment rate, however, eased to 4.1 per cent from 4.2 per cent in June, partly reflecting a decline in labour-force participation.
The softer labour-market data prompted investors to scale back expectations of a near-term Federal Reserve rate increase. Market expectations for a hike at the Fed’s next meeting fell to around 44 per cent, compared with 55 per cent in the previous session and 67 per cent a week earlier.
For Indian equities, softer US rate expectations could provide some support by improving global liquidity conditions, although elevated crude prices and geopolitical risks remain important counterweights.
Stocks in focus
Power Mech Projects declined 3.26 per cent after reporting a 44 per cent fall in consolidated net profit to Rs 79.78 crore in Q1 FY27, compared with Rs 142.55 crore in the preceding quarter. Net sales, however, increased 25.53 per cent year-on-year to Rs 1,623.68 crore.
Sky Gold and Diamonds jumped 8.42 per cent after reporting a sharp improvement in profitability. Consolidated net profit surged 136.94 per cent year-on-year to Rs 103.28 crore in Q1 FY27 from Rs 43.59 crore a year earlier. Revenue from operations rose 77.93 per cent to Rs 2,012.79 crore.
Oil India gained 2.30 per cent after standalone net profit surged 252.83 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2,870.21 crore. Revenue from operations increased 58.77 per cent to Rs 7,958.05 crore, aided by higher crude oil production and improved crude oil price realisation.
Kaynes Technology India fell 3.14 per cent despite a 40.47 per cent year-on-year increase in revenue to Rs 946.02 crore. Consolidated net profit declined 24.37 per cent to Rs 56.43 crore from Rs 74.61 crore in Q1 FY26.
Aarti Pharmalabs hit its 20 per cent upper circuit after consolidated net profit rose 65.4 per cent year-on-year and 24.6 per cent quarter-on-quarter to Rs 76.14 crore. Revenue increased 38.7 per cent year-on-year to Rs 535.80 crore.
Universal Cables also touched the 20 per cent upper circuit after consolidated net profit more than doubled, rising 108.8 per cent year-on-year to Rs 70.14 crore. Revenue increased 57.5 per cent year-on-year to Rs 945.06 crore, described as the company’s highest-ever first-quarter turnover.
Delhivery edged up 1.07 per cent despite reporting a 64.95 per cent year-on-year decline in consolidated net profit to Rs 32 crore. Adjusted PAT, before Ecom integration costs, stood at Rs 62 crore. Revenue from services rose 27.8 per cent year-on-year to Rs 2,931 crore.
Salzer Electronics declined 5.58 per cent after adjusted consolidated net profit fell 53.47 per cent year-on-year to Rs 8.04 crore. Revenue, however, increased 12.9 per cent year-on-year to Rs 498.02 crore, supported by demand for industrial switchgear, wires, cables and building products.
IPO activity remains active
The primary market also remained busy, with several public issues open for subscription.
Technocraft Ventures had received bids for 3,93,45,600 shares against 83,17,190 shares on offer, translating into a subscription of 4.73 times as of 5 pm on August 10. The IPO opened on August 7 and will close on August 11. Its price band is Rs 200-212 per share, with a minimum bid of 70 shares.
Dhoot Transmission, which opened for subscription on August 10, received bids for 1,56,51,645 shares against 2,49,56,363 shares on offer, resulting in subscription of 0.63 times at 5 pm. The issue closes on August 12 and carries a price band of Rs 829-871 per share. The minimum bid is 17 shares.
Molbio Diagnostics received bids for 67,67,496 shares against 81,58,529 shares on offer, taking subscription to 0.83 times. The issue opened on August 10 and closes on August 12, with a price band of Rs 768-807 per share and a minimum bid of 18 shares. The company operates in molecular diagnostics and is known for its Truenat diagnostic platform.
Meanwhile, Leap India received bids for 5,62,11,154 shares against 11,49,91,735 shares on offer, representing subscription of 0.49 times. The issue, which opened on August 7, closes on August 11. Its price band is Rs 151-159 per share and the minimum bid is 94 shares.
Outlook
With the domestic earnings season gathering pace, investors are likely to remain focused on corporate profitability, management commentary and forward guidance. At the same time, developments in the Middle East, movements in crude oil, the rupee’s trajectory and expectations surrounding global interest rates are expected to remain important drivers.
Monday’s market performance underlined the current balance between positive domestic factors and external risks. Strong earnings from select companies and easing expectations of an immediate US rate hike provided support, but elevated oil prices, geopolitical tensions and uneven sectoral performance prevented a stronger rally.
The Nifty’s close above 24,550 and the Sensex’s marginal gain indicate that the underlying market tone remains resilient, but the narrow advance and negative breadth suggest that investors are not yet willing to take aggressive positions. The direction of global crude prices, further developments around the Strait of Hormuz and the next batch of corporate earnings could determine whether the benchmarks break out of their current narrow trading range in the coming sessions.
Disclaimer: This article is a journalistic rehash prepared for business reporting purposes. It is not investment advice. Readers are advised to consult certified financial professionals before making investment decisions.