By Kushal Jeena
The entry of erstwhile adversaries as BJP candidates in the upcoming by elections to 28 assembly constituencies has altered the power balance within the ruling party in Madhya Pradesh giving a clear edge to the Congress party that seems sweeping the regional polls.
The by polls were necessitated following defection of 28 former Congress legislators to the BJP dislodging the Congress government that came back to power in 2018 but with very thin majority. The ruling party has been facing stiff dissenter not from the opposition but form within the party since the Congress rebels led by Jyotiraditya Scindia engineered a split and joined BJP along with his 22 supporters MLAs. In the by elections it is not that the Congress is in driving seat but the BJP candidates who have been facing stiff challenge from the party leaders and workers who had stood second in these constituencies but denied tickets this time to accommodate the Congress rebels.
The majority of seats where by elections are to be held are around Gwalior, an area considered to be stronghold of erstwhile royalty Scindias. The scion of the erstwhile kingdom Jyotiraditya Scindhia had led the rebellion in Congress party after he was denied the post of chief minister as Congress wrested power from BJP after long 15 years. The rebellion undoubtedly pulled down Kamal Nath government but created big trouble for the BJP as all those leaders and their supporters went into oblivion in the assembly segments where Congress rebels are fielded as BJP candidates. This is the prime reason for a possible defeat of the BJP in the state besides other issues.
The effectiveness of the chief minister in the usurpation of power, and Madhya Pradesh’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has been chaotic. The Congress campaign puts the spotlight on the mismanagement of the pandemic, and it has promised a government job to each family that has lost a member to the disease. A considerable population from these northern regions of the State used to work in urban centres outside the State and they had to return in distress during the lockdown.
Several instances of police brutality earned the State government notoriety in recent months. The defector-MLAs will be required to explain their conduct as the Congress accuses them of betraying the 2018 mandate. Scindia Along with Chouhan too is facing a litmus test as his popularity in his strong hold has been put to test. Scindia is expecting to find a place in union cabinet and the results of the by-elections will reflect his political clout in the region and impact his own standing in his new party, the BJP.
The top state Congress leader appear in upbeat mood because his exit has put an end to the infighting in the Congress and opens the possibility of a new politics for it in the Gwalior region. Regardless of the outcomes, these by-elections will signify the reshaping of both the Congress and the BJP in Madhya Pradesh. Whatever may be the outcome of the by polls, one thing that is surely going to happen is that it will signify the reshaping of both parties in the state.
Both the ruling BJP and opposition Congress party are locked into fierce electoral battle in the state where by elections are to be held in 28 assembly constituencies on November 3.
The resignations of 25 Congress MLAs have led to these by-elections, within two years of the election in 2018 that had brought the Congress to power with the support of independents and smaller parties. The BJP displaced the Congress in March, following defection of 22 Congress MLAs. Three more followed suit in later months. Most of these 25 have entered the fray as BJP candidates this time. The chief minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan is leading the BJP campaign and he needs to win at least nine seats to have an absolute majority in the Assembly of 230. The BJP now has 107 MLAs.
The Congress has 88 MLAs and it needs to win all the 28 seats to return to power on its own. If it wins 21, four Independent MLAs, two MLAs belonging to BSP and one from Samajwadi party will be in reckoning again. The BJP has the advantage of being in power at the Centre and in the State, but the Congress led by former chief minister Kamal Nath is trying to wrest power by drawing attention to its own record over a period of more than a year, and the failings of the present government.
Most of these seats are around Gwalior, areas considered as the sphere of influence of Jyotiraditya Scindia who led the Congress defectors to the BJP. The chief minister Chouhan’s effectiveness in the usurpation of power has not reflected in the governance since he took over the charge of the state, and Madhya Pradesh’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic has been chaotic. The Congress campaign puts the spotlight on the mismanagement of the pandemic, and it has promised a government job to each family that has lost a member to the disease. A considerable population from these northern regions of the State used to work in urban centres outside the State and they had to return in distress during the lockdown. The defector-MLAs are being asked by electorates to explain their conduct as the Congress accuses them of betraying the 2018 mandate.
The BJP in MP is apparently on a weak wicket not only because of infighting and betrayal of popular mandate that was in favor of Congress after the results of assembly polls were out in 2018 but also because of three contentious laws that the BJP led NDA government had pushed through in the Parliament in the just concluded budget session despite the fact that assembly by polls are being held in the backdrop of apex court’s verdict on Ram temple and removal of Article 370 in strife-torn state of Jammu and Kashmir. The three controversial new laws affecting farmers will certainly shape the outcome of the polls as Madhya Pradesh is also an agriculture centered state.
The context in which by-elections are being held should be taken into account. First, the August 5 inauguration of the construction of a Hindu temple in Ayodhya, a major flashpoint between major Hindu community and sizeable Muslim minority community in India, put the BJP’s majoritarian agenda back in the spotlight, after it was shelved abruptly when the COVID-19 pandemic touched down Indian soil.
The inauguration was arguably done just in time for the Bihar polls and by polls to remind its voter base of the party’s continued commitment to the promises it had made in the run up to the 2019 general elections. Apart from the Delhi elections, this will also be the first major test of the BJP’s standing since the central government it leads pushed forward the hugely contentious amendments to the country’s citizenship law, sparking violent protests against the religion-based changes to the legislation. Overall, the Muslim community remains acutely aware of the BJP’s Hindutva predisposition, and it will likely show in the way the community votes during the upcoming state-level polls.
Second, these elections come amid widespread protests by farmers’ groups against the recently passed agriculture-related laws, which broadly seek to loosen the rules regarding the sale, pricing and storage of farm produce.