Addressing a press conference here on “Long Range Forecast Update for 2011 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall” here with officials of the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), the Minister of State for Science and Technology, Mr. Pawan Kumar Bansal said “even though it maybe below normal but the rainfall would be well distributed and it would be a fairly good monsoon.” He said the monsoon this year would be 95 percent of the long-term average overall, down from its earlier forecast of 98 percent and just short of the 96-104 percent range which counts as normal monsoon. Last year it was 103 per cent, he said.
The minister said qualitatively, the monsoon rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 95 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of four per cent with the LPA rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. Mr Bansal said the rainfall over the country as a whole in July is likely to be 93 per cent of its LPA and in August it is likely to be 94 per cent of LPA with both having a model error of 9 per cent. On the rainfall over the four broad geographical regions of the country, he said the rainfall for this year in Southwest Monsoon season is likely to be 97 per cent of its LPA over North-West India, 95 per cent of the LPA over North-East India, 95 per cent of its LPA over Central India and 94 per cent of its LPA over South Peninsula with a model error of eight per cent. Meanwhile, IMD officials said that in addition to El Nino and La Nina, other factors such as the Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have also significant influence on India monsoon.
