R. Suryamurthy
Aviation experts have outlined several possible causes for the crash of Air India Flight AI171 in Ahmedabad on June 12, 2025, in which all 242 people on board were reportedly killed. The aircraft, a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner bound for London, went down shortly after takeoff in one of the deadliest air disasters in India’s recent history.
One widely discussed theory is a bird strike that may have led to a catastrophic engine failure. Captain Saurabh Bhatnagar, a retired senior pilot, noted that both engines may have lost power after ingesting birds, leaving the aircraft unable to generate sufficient thrust for lift. The crash occurred when the plane was flying at a low altitude of around 625 to 825 feet, consistent with such a scenario.
A second possibility raised by aviation expert Sanjay Lazar involves a stall resulting from a premature flap retraction or insufficient speed. If the aircraft’s flaps were mistakenly pulled in too early, it could have significantly reduced lift and caused the aircraft to lose altitude rapidly.
Environmental and operational factors may also have played a role. At the time of takeoff, the temperature was reportedly around 43°C, and the aircraft was carrying a full load of passengers and fuel. Some observers suggest the crew may have opted for an intersection takeoff — using a shortened portion of the runway — which could have limited the aircraft’s performance margin under such hot and heavy conditions.
“From what we know of the incident, the 787-9 operated by Air India is less than 14 years old and has been in active airline service since 2011. ADS-B track suggests that the aircraft took off from Ahhmedabad for Gatwick; and from social media reports, it became apparent that that crew entered a phase of ‘Negative-thurst-assurance’. While we at this stage don’t know the reason or the engines to fail, and it could be anything from Engine Failure, the crew alerted air traffic control of a distress. The aircraft from its attitude made several pitch up corrections, but the thrust setting to MCT or Maximum continuous Thrust could, sadly not be achieved.,” said Mark D Martin, MRAeS (Member of the Royal Aeronautical Society UK), CEO of Martin Consulting.

Pilot error is another possible factor. Incorrect flap settings or a miscalculation of takeoff speed (V2) could result in a stall. The relative inexperience of the co-pilot, who had logged around 1,100 flight hours, was noted by some, although there is no direct evidence linking this to the crash.
Other experts speculated about a sudden and total loss of engine thrust, possibly due to a mechanical fault, fuel contamination, or damage from external objects such as birds. The pilots reportedly issued a mayday call before the crash, suggesting they had identified a critical malfunction. However, communication with air traffic control ceased soon after the distress signal.
So far, investigators have not confirmed a definitive cause. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) and the Aircraft Accident Investigation Bureau (AAIB) have launched a formal probe, with likely technical assistance from Boeing. Recovery and analysis of the aircraft’s black boxes — which record flight data and cockpit audio — are expected to offer crucial insights. While some speculation has emerged about sabotage or foul play, there is currently no evidence to support such theories.
Eyewitnesses described a harrowing scene. One local resident, Vikram Joshi, reported hearing a loud explosion and seeing flames as the aircraft descended rapidly. Others near the crash site in Meghani Nagar saw thick smoke and bodies strewn across the area where the plane had slammed into a building housing medical staff quarters. One observer described airport ground staff as visibly shaken after witnessing the crash from a distance.
The crash of AI171 is the first fatal incident involving a Boeing 787-8 Dreamliner, a modern wide-body aircraft introduced in 2011 and known for its fuel efficiency and quiet engines. The aircraft had taken off at 1:17 p.m. local time, and its transponder signal was lost at just over 600 feet of altitude, according to flight-tracking service Flightradar24.
Globally, aviation crashes typically occur during takeoff or landing, the most critical phases of flight. Aviation safety analyst Simon Ashley Bennett has noted that pilot error remains the most common cause of commercial aircraft accidents, followed by mechanical failures, weather conditions, sabotage, and other human errors such as mistakes by air traffic controllers or maintenance crews.
In this case, investigators are examining whether a full fuel load and extreme heat may have pushed the aircraft’s performance limits. If a bird strike occurred in such conditions, the outcome could have been disastrous — as appears to have happened here.
The loss of AI171 has drawn condolences from around the world. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has dispatched top ministers to Ahmedabad, while global leaders, including Canada’s Mark Carney and France’s Emmanuel Macron, have offered sympathies. Boeing has said it is in contact with Air India and stands ready to support the investigation.
The AAIB has begun recovering wreckage, and Indian Army personnel have been deployed to assist with rescue and recovery efforts. An official list of the dead is awaited, even as families around the world mourn those who were lost.
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