AMN
Angela Merkel is set to remain chancellor of Germany for fourth term- but her party has lost support and she will need to find new coalition partners. Meanwhile the far-right AfD has reason to celebrate.
Her Social Democrats sink to a new low, and the populist AfD could lead the opposition.
Merkel’s CDU is not only Germany’s leading party. It is also an institution that’s very much the product of history. But has the CDU moved so far to the center that it is no longer truly conservative?
No party has led the German government as often as the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), having occupied the chancellor’s office for 48 of the 68 years of the Federal Republic of Germany’s existence. But despite that, the CDU is anything but a monolithic or homogeneous political bloc.
If anything, the key to the party’s success over the years has been its ability to speak to the political center – and to produce iconic, broadly popular leaders.
AfD party
Alternative for Germany (AfD) party, entering the Bundestag as the third largest party. Its main appeal is its opposition to Angela Merkel’s open-door policy toward migrants.
When it was formed in 2013, the AfD’s main thrust was its opposition to bailouts of indebted European Union member states like Greece. But over time, it has become, first and foremost, an anti-immigration party. A recent study by the prestigious Bertelsmann Foundation concluded that this issue is the only one on which the party possesses significant appeal.
The AfD completely rejects Chancellor Angela Merkel’s welcoming policy toward refugees, particularly from the Arab world, which has seen more than 1.5 million migrants arrive in Germany since 2015. The party wants to change Germany’s constitution to get rid of the right to an individual hearing in asylum cases and would seek to immediately deport all those whose applications to remain in Germany are rejected, regardless of whether the countries to which deportees are sent back are safe or not. It also advocates foreigners who commit crimes in Germany being sentenced to prisons outside the country and treating minors as young as 12 as adults for certain offenses.
Trends available so far–
— Angela Merkel’s Christian Democrats stretch their lead as the strongest force in parliament, despite a severe dip compared to their 2013 haul.
— Martin Schulz’s Social Democrats slip to their worst election result in post-war Germany.
— The right-wing populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins its first seats in the federal parliament, also becoming the Bundestag’s third power in the process.
— The pro-business Free Democrats return to parliament, after missing the cut for the first time since the war last time around.
— The Greens and the Left hold station, scoring very similarly to four years ago.
— No coalitions are practically viable without Merkel’s CDU taking the lead.
— The Social Democrats say they do not want to be in a coalition and intend to lead the opposition.
— Turnout will be higher than 2013’s level of 71.5 percent, around 75 percent.