Last Updated on February 8, 2026 10:52 pm by INDIAN AWAAZ
Zakir Hossain from Dhaka
An unusual political realignment is emerging ahead of Bangladesh’s upcoming national election, with the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and the Jamaat-e-Islami–led alliance finding rare opportunities in constituencies long regarded as impregnable strongholds of former prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s Awami League (AL) party.
The opening has been created by the absence of the Awami League from the race, after the party was barred from participating in the election following the suspension of its activities. Political analysts say the development is not merely about the possible loss of a few seats, but reflects a deeper uncertainty surrounding the Awami League’s political future.
Since the restoration of democracy in 1991, Bangladesh’s politics had largely revolved around a power-sharing equilibrium between the Awami League and the BNP, with the two parties alternating in government every five years. That balance began to erode over the past decade. The 2014 and 2024 elections were effectively uncontested, while the 2018 election was marred by allegations of large-scale ballot stuffing on the night before polling. BNP leaders say the party was gradually pushed to the margins during this period.
Jahangirnagar University (JU) professor of Government and Politics Al Masud Hasanuzzaman said that this time BNP’s principal rival is the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance. “However, with the Awami League out of the contest, BNP now has an opportunity to win beyond its traditional strongholds,” he said.
According to Hasanuzzaman, electoral outcomes will depend heavily on candidate selection, local credibility, and the overall conduct of political parties. Young voters could play a decisive role. He also raised a key question: what will happen to the Awami League’s loyal vote base, which traditionally accounted for nearly 30% of the electorate. “That remains uncertain,” he said.
In May last year, the interim government banned all activities of the Awami League and its affiliated organisations, citing allegations of killings, crimes against humanity, and other serious offences committed during the July uprising. The Election Commission subsequently suspended the party’s registration.
Data from the Parliament Secretariat and the Election Commission show that since 1991, the Awami League has won at least four times in 62 constituencies. In 22 of these seats, the party emerged victorious in every competitive election it contested. By contrast, the BNP has secured four or more victories in at least 33 constituencies.
Badliul Alam Majumdar, founder-secretary of Citizens for Good Governance (Shujan), said the Awami League’s current predicament was the result of its drift towards authoritarianism and entrenched corruption. “The consequences of stripping people of their constitutional, political, and voting rights are now becoming evident,” he said.
On the ground: In constituencies such as Mymensingh-10, Madaripur, Gopalganj, and Faridpur, once considered Awami League bastions, BNP and Jamaat candidates are making direct outreach to Awami League supporters. Campaigns range from courtyard meetings to assurances of security, communal harmony, and political inclusion.
BNP senior leader Imran Saleh Prince said, “The most critical factor for victory in these seats is a free and secure election. The administration must ensure that voters can cast their ballots without fear or obstruction.”
Jamaat leader Ehsanul Mahbub Zubayer said alliance candidates were tailoring their campaigns to local realities to win voter confidence.
Election analyst Abdul Alim, however, cautioned against assuming a complete erosion of Awami League influence. “Its impact has weakened, but its voters have not disappeared,” he said. “Some may vote for other parties, some may stay away from the polls, and others may deliberately invalidate their ballots.”