Last Updated on January 31, 2026 11:25 pm by INDIAN AWAAZ
Zakir Hossain from Dhaka
BNP Chairman Tarique Rahman is leading the race to become Bangladesh’s next prime minister, according to a nationwide survey that also shows a sharp rise in public confidence in the fairness and safety of the upcoming February 12 election.
The People’s Election Pulse Survey (Round 3), conducted by Innovision Consulting between January 16 and 27, interviewed 5,147 respondents across all eight divisions through phone-based CATI interviews. It found that 47.6% of voters prefer Tarique Rahman as prime minister, followed by Shafiqur Rahman of the Jamaat–NCP alliance at 22.5%, while 22.2% remain undecided. NCP convener Nahid Islam trailed at 2.7%.
Voter confidence in the electoral process has strengthened markedly. About 72.3% trust the interim government to conduct impartial polls, 74.4% believe police and local administration will act neutrally, and 82.3% feel safe casting their ballots. Reflecting this optimism, 93.3% of respondents said they intend to vote.
In parliamentary seat preferences among decided voters, the BNP-led alliance leads with 52.8% support, while the Jamaat–NCP alliance stands at 31.0%. About 13.2% declined to disclose their choice, forming a potentially decisive floating bloc.
The survey also points to major voter realignments since 2024. Around 32.9% of former Awami League supporters have shifted to the BNP, while 13.2% have moved toward the Jamaat–NCP camp. Gen Z voters (18–28) show high awareness of the election, though their voting intent is slightly lower at 91.6%.
Despite these trends, Innovision analysts cautioned that the election remains “anybody’s game,” noting that roughly 30% of respondents across survey rounds did not reveal a preference, while high voter volatility within the Jamaat–NCP camp could sway results in closely contested constituencies.