WEB DESK
New Delhi: Moody’s Investors Service has cut India’s 2018 growth forecast to 7.3 per cent from the previous estimate of 7.5 per cent, saying the economy is in cyclical recovery but higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.
“The Indian economy is in cyclical recovery led by both investment and consumption. However, higher oil prices and tighter financial conditions will weigh on the pace of acceleration.
“We expect GDP growth of about 7.3 per cent in 2018, down from our previous forecast of 7.5 per cent. Our growth expectation for 2019 remains unchanged at 7.5 per cent,” it said in an update of its ‘Global Macro Outlook: 2018-19’
Moody’s said growth should benefit from an acceleration in rural consumption, supported by higher minimum support prices and a normal monsoon.
“The private investment cycle will continue to make a gradual recovery, as twin balance-sheet issues – impaired assets at banks and corporates – slowly get addressed through deleveraging and the application of the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code,” it said.
Also, the ongoing transition to the new Goods and Service Tax regime could weigh on growth somewhat over the next few quarters, which poses some downside risk to the forecast, it said. “However, we expect these issues to moderate over the course of the year.”