Syed Ali Mujtaba
In the five-part series of the voting choices before the Muslims in India, we take up the political scenario in South India to assess the choices before the Muslims on how to challenge the BJP’s electoral supremacy at the national level.
The lineup of the political choice is clear before the Muslims they have to rise above narrow political interests to focus on the national political scene. They must keep their political choice close to their heart and reveal it only at the EVM booth to avoid consolidation of Hindu votes against them.
In the five South Indian states, the breakup of Muslims is as follows; they are 27 percent in Kerala, 12.5 percent in Karnataka, 12.7% in Telangana, 9.56 percent in Andhra Pradesh and 6 percent in Tamil Nadu.
The Muslim votes from South India can play a huge role in the regime change at the center, provided they are united for the common purpose of voting out the BJP from power in the upcoming Parliamentary election.
The choice for the South Indian Muslims is to pick up the regional parties that are in alliance with the Indian National Congress and vote for it because voting for a regional political party may be a waste of their mandate.
Tamil Nadu – In Tamil Nadu, the DMK is a formable regional party that is in alliance with the Congress party. There are 6 percent Muslim votes in Tamil Nadu. These votes must go to the DMK party in a consolidated way. Muslims should see that their votes are not split among the state’s six Muslim regional political parties. They should vote for the DMK-Congress alliance in a consolidated way. If this happens, all 39 LS seats in Tamil Nadu can go to the Congress block. This can change the political picture at the national level.
Kerala – Kerala has 20 LS seats; the main political parties are LDF and UDF. Muslim voters here have the choice to support the regional party that is in alliance with the Congress-led India block. The 27 percent Muslim population in Kerala can turn the tables if all the 20 seats can go one way and that can change the political picture at the national level.
Telangana- There are 17 Lok Sabha constituencies in Telangana. Here, the Congress and the BRS/TRS are the main political parties in competition. The BJP is a distant third and the AIMIM the fourth. Essentially, there is a contest only for 16 seats in Telenagana because one seat of old Hyderabad is the pocket borough of Assaduddin Owaisi. The TRS/BRS is a party that favors the Muslims but that is in the state politics, at the national level, Muslim should shun the regional party option and vote for the Congress to bring a change in national politics. The recent victory of the Congress in the Telengana Assembly election shows the revival of the Congress party under the leadership of Revant Reddy.
The politics of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh revolve around the fight for domination between Reddy’s and Khamas caste groups. Reddys constitute around 10–15% of the Telangana population and have traditionally voted for the Congress. Muslims are 12.7% in Telangana. If the two can combine they can corner all the 16 seats in the state. This can help in changing the political picture at the national level.
Andhra Pradesh- There are 25 Lok Sabha constituencies in Andhra Pradesh. The state is going to witness a three-cornered contest with YSR Congress Party being the main force. The BJP –TDP-JS alliance is at the number two position while the Congress is distant third. The Congress has got a new lease of life after YS Sharmila (daughter of YSR) is made of the party. Congress is expected to do well under the new leadership.
The choice before Muslims in Andhra Pradesh is YSRC or the INC. Muslims in AP fear that YSCR chief Jagan Mohan Reddy after the election may align with the BJP, they should be cautious about this eventuality. The best bet for Muslims is to vote for the Congress party and not the regional party. It is expected that YSRC in the end may support the India block because it cannot align with the BJP that has TDP in alliance and both are its opposition in the state. The assumption is if YSRC can win 15 seats and Congress 5 seats, in combination, the figure of 20 seats can boost the chances of changing the political picture at the national level.
Karnataka – In Karnataka, there are 28 Lok Sabha seats. Here there is a direct fight between the Congress and the BJP-JDS alliance. Here contest is between Lingayats and Vokkaligas castes that are battling for supremacy. Both the Congress and the BJP have fielded a maximum number of Vokkaligas and Lingayats candidates in the list of ticket distribution. Muslims in Karnataka constitute approximately 12.91% of the population but the BJP has fielded not even a single Muslim candidate. In contrast, Congress has given one ticket to a Muslim candidate. As a result, Muslims are unhappy with the Congress but the community has no other option but to vote for Congress keeping in mind the national political picture. If the recent, assembly election is any indicator, Congress is on the ascendance in Karnataka and can get 20 LS seats out of 28 LS seats. Here again, Muslim votes can play a crucial role in changing the political picture at the national level.
Conclusion: The 2024 Lok Sabha is the battle for survival for the Muslims in India. This is the last chance for the Muslims to assert their electoral strength in the country. In the past, they have ruined themselves by committing political hara-kiri by senselessly voting for this or that individual or party and thus getting defeated through the self-goal. This time they must wake up to the grim realities under the BJP rule and support the party that can guarantee them safety and security in India. This is not a hard choice to make, provided Muslims unite for the common purpose and vote out the BJP from power as they have done enough harm to the community. In this perspective, the five South Indian states can play a crucial role in turning the political future of the country.