Zakir Hossain from Dhaka
Bangladesh may face flooding in the Brahmaputra and Meghna river basins in July and August this year due to heavy rainfall in upstream catchment areas, according to the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC).
“Bangladesh remains vulnerable to flooding in July and August due to climatic reasons. During this period, heavy rainfall occurs in major river basins and upstream areas, triggering flood situations in the country,” said Sarder Udoy Raihan, Executive Engineer of the FFWC under the Bangladesh Water Development Board.
Raihan said a flood situation is likely in the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins during the mid-monsoon period. He added that the FFWC can currently issue flood forecasts for inland river basins 10 to 15 days in advance, while coastal river forecasts can be issued three days ahead.
Historical records show that Bangladesh’s worst floods have often occurred during this period. The 1988 flood, caused by extreme monsoon rainfall between August and September, inundated nearly 82,000 square kilometres, or about 60% of the country. The 1998 flood lasted for more than two months across July and August, killing over 1,000 people and leaving about 30 million people displaced or stranded.
Experts say the simultaneous rise of the Brahmaputra and Meghna basins creates the highest risk. In 2004, a major flood worsened when the peaks of the Brahmaputra and Meghna coincided in late July, submerging nearly 30,000 square kilometres in the northeastern region. The 2022 Meghna basin floods and the devastating 2024 floods together affected more than 13 million people, highlighting the growing threat of upstream downpours.
On the current river situation, Raihan said low-lying areas of the Brahmaputra basin are already being flooded, while water levels may stabilise after five to six days. The Meghna basin is expected to remain stable over the next few days as there has been no heavy rainfall in the basin or its upstream areas.
He also said a low-pressure area may form over the Bay of Bengal this month, which could trigger sudden flooding in low-lying coastal areas.
According to an FFWC forecast issued on Thursday, water levels in the Brahmaputra-Jamuna river system decreased over the last 24 hours but are expected to rise over the next four days before stabilising on the fifth day. From July 4 to 7, the Brahmaputra-Jamuna rivers may flow at warning level in Kurigram, Gaibandha, Jamalpur and Bogra districts, inundating nearby low-lying areas.
The Ganges-Padma rivers are also expected to continue rising over the next five days but may remain below danger level. During the next 72 hours, the Surma-Kushiyara rivers may continue to flow at warning level in Sylhet and Sunamganj districts, with nearby low-lying areas remaining inundated in some places.
The Teesta River at Dalia in Nilphamari and Tarapur in Lalmonirhat, the Kushiyara River at Fenchuganj in Sylhet and Markuli in Sunamganj, and the Someshwari River at Kolmakanda in Netrokona are currently flowing at their respective warning levels.