By Kushal Jeena
Aimed at reconnecting with the masses, the upcoming ‘Bharat JodoYatra’, a 150-days long campaign that covers length and width of the country holds promise for the future of the Congress party that said it would go back to the common people with its time-tested politics of centrist view in the complicated Indian political scenario.
Headed by former party president Rahul Gandhi, the campaign that begins on September 7 from Kanyakumari would pass through 12 states covering 3,500 kilometers will be the first mass contact campaign in independent India launched by any political party. India’s grand old party also has plans to launch another but little short campaign from western Gujarat to far north eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh in the aftermath of Bharat Jodo Yatra
The well-planned campaign assumes significance as the Congress party is facing its biggest ever electoral challenge in the run –up to2024 parliamentary election. The Congress cannot afford to go down from its current strength in the lower House of Indian parliament in the next general elections. In case the party is not able to perform better in the 2024 elections than the previous one, it will lose the claim of being the principal opposition party in the Parliament triggering a serious crisis to its existence and the upcoming nationwide campaign is aimed at avoiding such a mishap.
“There will be 100 padyatris who will walk from the start to finish. They will be Bharat Yatris. Around 100 people will keep joining from the states through which yatra would not pass through. These people will be called as guest yatris. Same number of yatre is will join from the states from where yatra would pass. At a time, there will be 300 padyatris,” said Digvijay Singh, a former chief minister of Madhya Pradesh and incharge of the Bharat Jodo Yatra.
The former party President Rahul Gandhi will lead the yatra from start to finish. The party said this mass-contact campaign programme of this scale is the first of its kind after India attained its independence from British colonial rule. In the run-up to the yatra, Rahul Gandhi invited various people from the civil society in the national capital to seek suggestions on the yatra. The impressive presence of the members of the civil society helped boost the morale of the Congress leaders who have been entrusted with the responsibility of making arrangements for the campaign.
While interacting with the members of civil society Rahul Gandhi opened the doors for civil society organizations urging them to join the Bharat Jodo yatra. The yatra will retain its political flavor but will not be a Congress affair. The various members of the civil society committed their unconditional support to the campaign prompting Rahul Gandhi to quip that yatra should be political but not a party affair.
A mass-contact of this big scale was the need of the hour for the Congress party whose mass base has been eroding gradually since rise of the right wing Hindu nationalist BJP after the party embarked upon Ramjanambhoomi-Babri mosque campaign that gave tremendous rise to the politics of Hindutva. The rise of the BJP was at the cost of the Congress particularly in the northern part of the country, which is important to the Indian parliamentary politics because this region known as cow belt sends majority of the law makers to the Lok Sabha. The right wing BJP made deep inroads in Congress party’s bastion in this region gradually and ultimately remained confined to only few northern states.
Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Telangana, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are the major states that go to polls ahead of 2024 parliamentary polls and the Congress is in direct contest with the BJP in all but one (Telangana).
The Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh elections are scheduled later this year. In both states, and especially in Gujarat, the Congress faces a very critical challenge. The Congress in BJP-dominated Gujarat has to be second even if it is not able to defeat the BJP as the Aam Adami party has been emerging as a big challenger here to both the two key players.
It is strange that Gujarat doesn’t figure in the roadmap of Bharat Jodo campaign; it means that the Congress plans to run its Gujarat campaign and the Yatra separately. The party’s leadership will not be able to devote as much time to the Gujarat campaign as it did in 2017. Rahul Gandhi pretty much led the Gujarat campaign in 2017. The Yatra may serve as a distraction from the task at hand in Gujarat, and could harm the Congress’s prospects. If the Congress were to fall behind the AAP, it could completely derail the momentum of the Bharat Jodo Yatra. In Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka, the Congress is the main opposition party and it will have the advantage of anti-incumbency. However, in these two states, namely Gujarat and Karnataka, it will also have to deal with aggressive Hindutva politics.
“In constituencies where Muslims in the population are less than 10 percent, the BJP’s lead over the Congress among Hindu voters is only 4 percentage points. In seats where Muslims constitute 10-20 percent of the population, the gap is six times higher at 25 points. And in areas where Muslims are over 20 percent of the population, the BJP leads the Congress by 42 points among Hindu voters”, said Sanjay Kumar and Shreyas Sardesai from CSDS-Lokniti in an electoral analysis. This situation might help Congress if it manages to make local level anti-incumbency a bigger issue than the secularism-communalism binary in Gujarat and even Karnataka.
The Congress will be at the receiving end of anti-incumbency in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and might give a strong fight to BJP in Madhya Pradesh. It could be a better tactical plan for the Congress to first focus on the Gujarat elections, finish a credible second even if it cannot achieve victory, make a spirited effort at winning Karnataka and then hold the Yatra to build momentum before the late 2023 election cycle. That move may have helped the Congress recover anti-incumbency to some extent in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh and generate support for its campaign in Madhya Pradesh.
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi opened the doors for civil society organizations to join the Bharat Jodo Yatra. The yatra will retain its political flavor but will not be a Congress affair, as demanded by a large section of civil society organizations. “We will continue to walk in the yatra irrespective of the size of the crowd,” said Gandhi.
He also mentioned how the BJP returned to power even after being defeated in state elections and that several institutions such as the Enforcement Directorate (ED) and Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) are compromised. He said there is a need to go to the people as they are the real masters.