SHARP DECLINE IN VOTE SHARE AND SMALL WINNING MARGINS TO MAKE BJP BATTLE DIFFICULT
By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Celebrations in the BJP rank and file after sweeping the Rajasthan polls by winning 115 seats out of election held in 199 constituencies in a 200-seat Legislative Assembly has a hidden discomfort for the party leadership, while the loss of power has greatly shocked the Congress that could win only 69 seats. Both the political parties could bag only 81.22 per cent of votes, BJP 41.69 per cent and the Congress 39.53 per cent. Apart from only a little margin of 2.16 per cent of votes between the BJP and the Congress, a large 18.78 per cent votes bagged by others, signifying very high level of political uncertainly for the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls 2024.
In the Lok Sabha election 2019, NDA had won all the 25 seats from the state, BJP 24 and Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) 1, while sharing 59.07 and 2.06 per cent of votes respectively. However, RLP is not now part of NDA and BJP has suffered a decline of 17.38 per cent of votes. With this, BJP’s winning margin of 24.48 per cent as against Congress in 2019 narrowed down to just 2.16 per cent. The Congress, that could gain only 34.59 per cent of votes in 2019, was able to bag 39.53 per cent of votes in 2023, which was a rise of 4.94 per cent. The sharp decline in BJP’s vote share and its thinner winning margin would surely come back to haunt the party leadership in the coming months, because winning all the 25 Lok Sabhas seats from the state has just become more difficult for them making the party leadership extremely uncomfortable.
It is worth recalling that RLP had quit NDA in December 2020 in protest of PM Narendra Modi’s three controversial farm laws and supported the farmers’ movement. The Rajasthan poll result shows that RLTP has even increased its vote share in 2023 to 2.39 per cent from 2.06 per cent in 2019 when it contested in alliance with BJP. The party has won even one seat. Since BJP will have to contest the Lok Sabha poll on its own strength, it would not have advantage of the RLP support as it was seen in 2019.
Congress contested the election with only Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) as its alliance. RLD was given one seat and it won. In all other seats, the Congress contested on its own strength with the idea that they have performed well and implemented several public welfare schemes in the state including the right to free treatment which would fetch them enough votes to win the election. This is why the party did not make any seat sharing arrangement with constituents of INDIA opposition alliance. Several political parties in INDIA contested the election resulting in division of anti-BJP votes. Additionally, the party could unite its warring factions – one led by CM Ashok Gehlot and another by Sachin Pilot, only weeks before the election. The truce between the two towards the end of the election campaign could not truncate the adverse impact of the five-years old infighting between the two. However, if the truce continued in the coming months it would spell a disaster for the BJP’s electoral prospect, which can be multiplied if Congress enters into seat sharing arrangement with INDIA alliance partners. AAP bagged 0.38 per cent of votes, CPI 0.04 per cent, CPI(M) 0.96 per cent, CPI (ML)(L) 0.01 per cent, SP 0.01 per cent.
BSP’s vote share of 1.82 per cent in 2023 as against 1.09 per cent of votes in 2019 Lok Sabha election shows that it was able to increase its influence. It should be noted that all the six BSP MLAs won in 2018 on party tickets were defected to Congress, and hence its share of votes has declined from 4.03 per cent to only 1.82 per cent now. Nevertheless, BSP has won one seat, and is the fourth political party in terms of share of votes.
Among other political parties, AIMIM bagged 0.01 per cent of votes, JNJP 0.14, LJPRV 0.01, SHS 0.15 and others 11.90 per cent of votes, which included independents. Nota votes were 0.96 per cent. It is worth noting that Bharat Adivasi Party has won 3 and independents 8 seats. All these facts indicate that there is much scope for political realignment in the state in the coming months before the Lok Sabha election expected to be held in April-May.
BJP gained 42 seats with only a 3 per cent increase in share of votes, while Congress lost 30 seats despite maintaining its share of votes at 39 per cent. It should also be noted that BJP could retain only 44 seats out of 73 it had won in 2018, while Congress could retain only 36 seats out of 100 it had won in the last election. As many as 119 constituencies changed their MLAs out of 199. Congress could win only 69 seats as against 100 in 2018, and the BJP 115 seats as against 73 in the last general election. A total of 19 seats have winning margin of less than 2400 votes, and dozens of seats had less than 5000 margins. These figures signify widened political uncertainties and stiffer contest in the forthcoming Lok Sabha election 2024. This puts both the Congress and BJP on tenterhooks. (TryXyz.com)