JAYA RIDES WAVE, RUINS DMK PARIVAR

With an expected tally of 151 of the 160 seats her party contested, the AIADMK supremo is set to return as the chief minister of Tamil Nadu for the third time.

The massive mandate of 204 of 234 seats for the AIADMK and its allies sent the DMK to the third place, its tally of 22 its second worst electoral performance since it first came to power in 1967.

Neither the DMK’s muscle power nor the gifts and freebies it showered on voters ultimately came in Jayalalithaa’s way.

Jayalalitha won by a massive margin in her own Srirangam constituency. While Karunanidhi win from Tiruvarur , his son deputy CM MK Stalin managed to win by meager margin from the Kolathur constituency. Most DMK personalities had moved out of their traditional constituencies to outer constituencies fearing the backlash of the 2G spectrum so vividly reported in print and beamed day in and day out by the electronic networks . Many prominent DMK leaders are set to lose

What caused the DMK downfall? In politics everyone is corrupt, but the degree of corruption varies, says one seasoned political observer. For the DMK, the excessive greed of some people close to the 1st family to make as much money as one can and scoot hastened the doom.

Why this paranoia then? A Raja, the telecom minister, who is now in jail pending charges of corruption to be proved by the CBI that 2G spectrum licenses were awarded to certain service providers or agencies in utter violation of certain norms and that there was a nexus between front companies and money siphoned by them to electronic networks owned by the 1st family , is a case in point.

The brazenness by which rules were violated to grant licenses in haste shows a degree of hurry or paranoia for making money as alleged by the investigating agencies. The constant exposure of such events on the TV led to strong public opinion against the DMK, political observers say.

Back at home, there was considerable public ire against the manner in which the relatives of the 1st family sought to control the media, realty business, computer peripheral industry. There are horrendous stories of land grab and property acquisition by force or coercion by the minions of the DMK in several districts of Tamil Nadu, the strangle hold on the movie business by forcing small time movie makers to sell out their rights to films for distribution to movie houses owned by the relatives of the 1st family.

Perhaps after Jayalalitha takes control of the state administration, she might order high level enquiries to investigate if such stories were true and if so, whether those involved can be brought to book. That’s the stage now set for AIADMK rule. She has to act on them to satisfy the voters without having to sound or be seen as vengeful against the DMK.

What is the impact on the national stage? There is a good possibility that the uneasy relationship between the Congress and the DMK is heading for a definitive snap. Congress leaders will now go into a huddle (encouraged by their successful alliance with TMC which has swept the polls in West Bengal) to decide how quickly the DMK alliance can be broken.

Congress will rely on the matured skills of seniors such as Pranab Da , intuitive skills of P Chidambaram and the chanakyaness of Kapil Sibal on how quickly to end the DMK alliance. It has to be done surgically and without much blood being spilled on the political arena. Congress would have to duck charges of betrayal by alliance partners DMK and at the same time preserve its interests in the long run – after all general elections are due in less than two years time.

Already bruised by CWG and other scams, Congress cannot afford the DMK scam taint to hurt it with the national voters.
For the DMK, with an aging Karunanidhi and lack of political acumen of the patriarch with any of his scions – Alagiri or Stalin – it seems the election verdict of 2011 is an epitaph on their political fortunes hence.

For Jayalalitha, who herself has successfully come out of several corruption charges leveled against her by the DMK, it’s a challenge to bring normality to a corruption tainted state. She has the political will, wisdom, sagacity and most of all shrewd political intelligence to do it. She was careful not to attack the alliance partner Congress but attacked only the DMK. Her options are open – whether to ally with the Congress now or the BJP. Or be independent , wait and watch.

For the Congress it may be a good idea to forge an alliance two months hence with the AIADMK to ensure its own future in the state for the upcoming general elections.

These are various scenarios which are likely to emerge. But caution is the word right now. Everyone will wait for the courts verdicts on 2G spectrum scams and the people involved. And once that comes, Congress will further distance itself from its old ally. To duck charges of betrayal, Congress was cautious not to break the alliance before the polls and reserved its option to do so after the polls.

Congress is most probably likely to turn around and blame the DMK for the mess it has created for itself and for the Congress through the 2G issue. One good reason to break away.

For the AIDMK supremo, good to be in good books of the Congres to ensure smooth centre state relations. But if the BJP foresees any chance of seizing power in the next general elections on the corruption issues against the Congress, it must strike when the iron is hot and hobnob with JJ right now and forge an alliance. But JJ is in the driver’s seat and she will dictate terms. She does not even need the left front allies support for forming the government, as polit bureau member Prakash Karat has openly admitted with his comment Jayalalitha will have definitive victory that she does not need allies support to form the government. She might be in a position to form the government without having them in the government but with outside support.

The next few months would be furious with political activities. DMK has to hatch a good movie plot to resurrect itself. Only their patriarch Karunanidhi is capable of doing and not his scions. The future of DMK seems to be in peril despite its ostentatious free bies schemes which hasn’t worked at all – it has think of new schemes to regain power.

Jayalalitha – A political profile

By TN Ashok
Ms Jayalalitha , one of the most pretty faces on tamil cinema and a multi linguist  , was launched into her political career by her mentor and co star MG Ramachandran, who himself held sway on the political firmament in Tamil Nadu as the Chief Minister of a state known to idolize screen heroes and heroines.

Under the guidance of her mentor Puratchi Thalaivar Dr.M.G.R., she entered Politics and became a Member in A.I.A.D.M.K., in 1982; In January 1983 she was appoointed as the Propaganda Secretary of A.I.A.D.M.K; In February 1983, she was chosen by Dr. M.G.R. to conduct her maiden election campaign for the A.I.A.D.M.K., candidate in the bye-election to the Tiruchendur Assembly Constitutency.  Her election campaign was a trail blazer securing an astounding victory for the Party candidates agaisnst all odds;

In 1984,  she was elected as a Member of Parliament to the Rajya Sabha and retained the seat until she was elected to the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in 1989;

Jayalalitha role became all important when Dr.M.G.R., fell ill and was under medical treatment in the U.S.A., the A.I.A.D.M.K., had to fight the General Elections to the Lok Sabha and to the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in December 1984.  In the absence of Dr.M.G.R., she spear-headed the alliance of the A.I.A.D.M.K., and the Congress (I) securing a massive victory.

After the death of her mentor Dr. M.G.R. in 1987, the A.I.A.D.M.K. Party split vertically into two.  As the General Secretary of the Party she contested the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly in January 1989 and was elected from Bodinayakkanur; She became the first Woman Leader of the Opposition in the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly; In February 1989, the two factions of the A.I.A.D.M.K., reunited under her singular Leadership and she was unanimously elected to the post of the General Secretary of the unified A.I.A.D.M.K.,

In 1989  she restored the ‘Two Leaves’ election symbol to the A.I.A.D.M.K., Party.  In the 1989 General Elections to the Lok Sabha, she steered the A.I.A.D.M.K. – Congress (I) alliance to a historic victory in the State of Tamil Nadu and the Pondicherry Unioin Territory;

Thereafter she secured victories for the A.I.A.D.M.K., in all the subsequent by-elections to the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly from Marungapuri, Madurai East and Peranamallur Assembly Constituencies;
Won a magnificent Victory by contesting in both Bargur and Kangeyam Constituencies during the General Elections to the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly held in 1991;

Moreover, she single-handedly ensured a massive Victory for her party and the alliance by winning 225 Constituencies out of 234.  Subsequently, she resigned the Kangeyam Assembly seat she had won, and made her Party candidate contest in that Constituency securing an astounding Victory;

Further, she was instrumental for the historic 100 percent Victory of the AIADMK and its alliance in Tamil Nadu and Pondicherry held simultaneously in 1991 General Elections to 40 Lok Sabha Constituencies, in which the alliance led by her swept to a historic Victory by winning all the 40 Lok Sabha Seats (39 in Tamil Nadu and one in Pondicherry).  She was elected from Andipatti Assembly Constituency in February 2002;

Chief Minister from 24.06.1991 to 12.05.1996, from 14.05.2001 to 21.09.2001 and from 02.03.2002.
She was educated at the Bishop Cotton Girls’ High School in Bangalore and later at the Presentation Convent Church Park in Madras.  On completion of Matriculation in 1964, she won a scholarship from the Government of India for higher studies but did not accept it as she took up a career in films in Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, Hindi, English and Malayalam.

She was trained in classical dance (Bharatha Natyam) and carnatic music from the age of 4 onwards.  She is proficient in other dance-forms such as Mohini Attam, Kathak, Manipuri.  She has given hundreds of performances in Bharatha Natyam all over India and has sung several songs herself in her films.  She is proficient in English, Tamil, Telugu, Kannada, Hindi and can understand Malayalam very well. She is one of the most charismatic actor turned politicians in Indian polity who may set sights on prime ministers one day.