Eight-core-industries

AMN / New Delhi

India’s GDP growth surged by 6.3% in the September quarter. In the June quarter Country’s economic growth had slowed to 5.7%. The latest data indicates that the economy has come out of  the lingering effects of demonetisation last year and GST rollout on 1 July.

The GDP data for the September quarter came on a day when it was reported that India’s fiscal deficit at the end of October hit 96.1% of the budget estimate for 2017-18.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has pared its growth forecast for the Indian economy by half a percentage point to 6.7% for 2017-18. Both the Asian Development Bank as well as the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have also cut their growth projections for India to 7% and 6.7%, respectively, for 2017-18.

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Here is Full GDP Data released by the governement of India Job And Education Computer Keys Showing Choice Of Working Or Stu

Estimates of gross Domestic Product for the Second Quarter (July-September) of 2017-18

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation has released the estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter (July-September) Q2 of 2017-18, both at constant (2011-12) and current prices, along with the corresponding quarterly estimates of expenditure components of the GDP.

2. The details of the estimates of GDP for Q2 of 2017-18 are presented below.

I. ESTIMATES OF GROSS VALUE ADDED (GVA) BY ECONOMIC ACTIVITY

(a) At constant (2011-2012) prices

3. GDP at constant (2011-12) prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at `31.66 lakh crore, as against `29.79 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.3 percent. Quarterly GVA at Basic Price at constant (2011-12) prices for Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at `29.18 lakh crore, as against `27.51 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 6.1 percent over the corresponding quarter of previous year.

4. The economic activities which registered growth of over 6.0 percent in Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17 are ‘manufacturing’, ‘electricity, gas, water supply & other utility services and ‘trade, hotels, transport & communication and services related to broadcasting’. The growth in the ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’, ‘mining and quarrying’, ‘construction’ ‘financial, insurance, real estate and professional services’ and ‘Public administration, defence & other services’ is estimated to be 1.7 percent, 5.5 percent, 2.6 per cent, 5.7 percent and 6.0 percent respectively, during this period.

5. Industry analysis

The second quarter estimates are based on agricultural production during Kharif season of 2017-18 obtained from the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC), abridged financial results of listed companies from BSE/NSE, Index of Industrial Production (IIP), monthly accounts of Union Government Expenditure maintained by Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and of State Government expenditure maintained by Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG). Performance of key indicators of sectors like transport including railways, road, air and water transport etc., communication, banking and insurance during the period July-September 2017 have been taken into account while compiling the estimates. Performance of the corporate sector during July-September 2017 based on data received from BSE/NSE has been taken into account. With the introduction of Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 1st July 2017 and consequent changes in the tax structure, the total tax revenue used for GDP compilation include non-GST revenue and GST revenue based on GSTR filings as provided by Central Board of Excise and Customs, Department of Revenue, Ministry of Finance. Data used for Q2 of 2017-18 is based on data reported as on date. Approach adopted for compiling Taxes on products at current and constant prices is given in the Annexure.

Agriculture, forestry and fishing

5.1 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘agriculture, forestry and fishing’ sector grew by 1.7 percent as compared to growth of 4.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC), which has been used in compiling the estimate of GVA from agriculture in Q2 of 2017-18, the production of food grains during the Kharif season of agriculture year 2017-18 declined by 2.8 percent as compared to the growth of 10.7 percent during the same period in 2016-17. Around 52.5 percent of GVA of this sector is based on the livestock products, forestry and fisheries, which registered a combined growth of around 3.8 percent in Q2 of 2017-18.

Mining and quarrying

5.2. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘mining and quarrying’ sector grew by 5.5 percent as compared to decline of 1.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicators of mining sector, namely, production of coal, crude oil and IIP mining registered growth rates of 8.6 per cent, (-)0.7 percent and 7.2 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to (-)4.2 per cent, (-)3.3 percent and (-)1.5 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.

Manufacturing

5.3 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘manufacturing’ sector grew by 7.0 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The private corporate sector growth (which has a share of over 70 percent in the manufacturing sector) as estimated from available data of listed companies with BSE/NSE is 11.4 percent at current prices during Q2 of 2017-18. The growth in quasi – corporate and unorganized segment (which includes individual proprietorships and partnerships and khadi & village Industries has a share of around 20 percent in the manufacturing sector) has been estimated using IIP of manufacturing. IIP manufacturing registered growth rate of 2.2 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services

5.4 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Electricity, Gas, water supply and other utility services’ sector grew by 7.6 percent as compared to growth of 5.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector, namely, IIP of Electricity registered growth rate of 6.1 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.1 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

Construction

5.5 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from ‘Construction’ sector grew by 2.6 percent as compared to growth of 4.3 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. Key indicators of construction sector, namely, production of cement and consumption of finished steel registered growth rates of (-) 0.4 percent and 4.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 3.4 percent and 6.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Trade, Hotels and Transport & Communication and Services related to broadcasting

5.6. Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 9.9 percent as compared to growth of 7.7 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. GVA from Trade sector is is estimated using an index of turnover based on Sales tax. With introduction of GST, sales tax data is now subsumed under GST. Therefore, a comparable estimate of turnover based on Sales tax has been estimated. Methodology of estimation is given in the Annexure. Among the other services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometres and passenger kilometres have shown growth rate of 5.0 per cent and (-) 2.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18. In case of other transport sectors, passengers handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled by the civil aviation, cargo handled at major ports and sales of commercial vehicles registered growth rates of 13.5 percent, 18.9 percent, 1.5 percent and 21.0 percent respectively, during Q2 of 2017-18.

Financial, insurance, real estate and professional services

5.7 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew 5.7 percent as compared to growth of 7.0 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. Major component of this industry is the real estate and professional services which has a share of 75 percent. The key indicator of this sector is the quarterly growth of corporate sector for computer related activities which is estimated from available data of listed companies. The other indicators of this sector, viz., aggregate bank deposits and bank credits have shown growth rates of 8.6 per cent, and 6.8 per cent, respectively as on September 2017 as against growth of 10.8 percent and 10.1 percent respectively as on September 2016.

Public administration and defence and other services

5.8 Quarterly GVA at basic prices for Q2 of 2017-18 from this sector grew by 6.0 percent as compared to growth of 9.5 percent in Q2 of 2016-17. The key indicator of this sector namely, Union Government revenue expenditure net of interest payments excluding subsidies grew by 0.8 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 20.8 percent in Q2 of 2016-17.

(b) At current prices

6. GDP is derived by adding taxes on products, net of subsidies on products, to GVA at basic prices. The taxes on products include both GST and non GST Revenue of Central and State Governments.

GDP at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18 is estimated at ` 40.22 lakh crore, as against ` 36.76 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing a growth rate of 9.4 percent. GVA at basic price at current prices in Q2 of 2017-18, is estimated at ` 36.40 lakh crore, as against `33.52 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17, showing an increase of 8.6 per cent.

(c) Price indices used as deflators
7. The wholesale price index (WPI), in respect of the groups – food articles, minerals, manufactured products and all commodities, has registered a growth of 3.4 percent, 2.1 percent, 2.4 per cent, and 2.6 percent respectively whereas electricity declined by 1.6 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 over Q2 of 2016-17. The consumer price index (CPI) has shown a rise of 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to growth of 5.2 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.

II. ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES ON GDP
8. The components of expenditure on gross domestic product, namely, consumption expenditure and capital formation, are normally measured at market prices. The aggregates presented in the following paragraphs, therefore, are in terms of market prices.

Private Final Consumption Expenditure
9. Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) at current prices is estimated at `23.05 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `21.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-12) prices, the PFCE is estimated at `17.06 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `16.02 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of PFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 57.3 per cent and 53.9 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 57.3 per cent and 53.8 per cent, respectively in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of PFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 9.4 percent and 6.5 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 11.9 percent and 7.9 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Government Final Consumption Expenditure
10. Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) at current prices is estimated at `5.43 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `5.07 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCE is estimated at `3.96 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `3.81 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCE at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 13.5 per cent and 12.5 per cent, respectively, as against the corresponding rate of 13.8 percent and 12.8 percent each in Q2 of 2016-17.Growth rates of GFCE at current and constant prices are estimated at 7.1 percent and 4.1 percent respectively during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 21.2 percent and 16.5 percent respectively during Q2 of 2016-17.

Gross Fixed Capital Formation
11. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) at current prices is estimated at `10.61 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `9.98 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. At constant (2011-2012) prices, the GFCF is estimated at `9.15 lakh crore in Q2 of 2017-18 as against `8.74 lakh crore in Q2 of 2016-17. In terms of GDP, the rates of GFCF at current and constant (2011-2012) prices during Q2 of 2017-18 are estimated at 26.4 percent and 28.9 percent, respectively, as against the corresponding rates of 27.1 percent and 29.4 percent respectively in Q2 of 2016-17. Growth rates of GFCF at current and constant prices are estimated at 6.3 percent and 4.7 percent during Q2 of 2017-18 as compared to 2.9 percent and 3.0 percent during Q2 of 2016-17.

12. Estimates of GVA at basic price by kind of economic activity and the Expenditures on GDP for Q2 and during April-September of 2015-16, 2016-17 and 2017-18 at constant (2011-12) and current prices, are given in Statements 1 to 8.

13. The next release of quarterly GDP estimate for the quarter October-December, 2017 (Q3 of 2017-18) will be on 28.02.2018.

 

STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at 2011-12 prices)
 
Industry (`in crore) Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price over previous year
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing 371468 306694 380833 319173 389732 324521 2.5 4.1 2.3 1.7
2.mining & quarrying 87294 66214 86485 65368 85911 68967 -0.9 -1.3 -0.7 5.5
3.manufacturing 458128 464719 507223 500655 513139 535542 10.7 7.7 1.2 7.0
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services 55324 57912 61018 60850 65289 65467 10.3 5.1 7.0 7.6
5.construction 222464 208855 229321 217790 233919 223539 3.1 4.3 2.0 2.6
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting 474733 466888 516958 503064 574261 553021 8.9 7.7 11.1 9.9
7.financial, insurance, real estate &professional services 594754 670123 650607 717077 692522 757968 9.4 7.0 6.4 5.7
8.Public administration, defence& other services 293784 334639 318963 366583 349356 388531 8.6 9.5 9.5 6.0
GVA at Basic Price 2557949 2576044 2751407 2750560 2904128 2917556 7.6 6.8 5.6 6.1

 

 

STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at 2011-12 prices)

Item (`in crore) RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 1453347 1484050 1575613 1601797 1680481 1705978 53.6 53.8 54.0 53.9
2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 286327 326759 333761 380561 391080 396284 11.3 12.8 12.6 12.5
3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 849973 848892 912768 874494 927506 915211 31.0 29.4 29.8 28.9
4.     Change in Stocks 67160 68126 73118 72171 73979 77000 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.4
5.     Valuables 40244 46978 34687 36783 105716 75408 1.2 1.2 3.4 2.4
6.     Exports 583423 599072 594947 608293 602159 615706 20.2 20.4 19.4 19.4
7.     Less Imports 623959 656986 620649 631865 703827 679194 21.1 21.2 22.6 21.5
8.     Discrepancies 69359 53206 37601 36584 33052 59271 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.9
 GDP 2725873 2770097 2941846 2978817 3110145 3165664 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)     7.9 7.5 5.7 6.3        

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 3: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at current prices)

Industry   (`in crore) Percentage change
GVA at Basic Price over previous year
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing 487463 411860 535817 453016 537540 469624 9.9 10.0 0.3 3.7
2.mining & quarrying 89202 62948 74069 57256 82270 64661 -17.0 -9.0 11.1 12.9
3.manufacturing 510270 513542 561546 557478 583080 610611 10.0 8.6 3.8 9.5
4.electricity,gas,water  supply & other utility services 80345 83635 84781 85543 91306 90509 5.5 2.3 7.7 5.8
5.construction 257820 240308 263908 253148 275466 266501 2.4 5.3 4.4 5.3
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication

& services related to broadcasting

554319 542097 599817 589846 686195 661949 8.2 8.8 14.4 12.2
7.financial, insurance, real estate &   professional services 690702 774052 768015 856073 837108 928437 11.2 10.6 9.0 8.5
8.Public administration, defence& other services 380690 435775 428746 499351 484492 548129 12.6 14.6 13.0 9.8
GVA at Basic Price 3050811 3064217 3316698 3351712 3577457 3640421 8.7 9.4 7.9 8.6

 

 

STATEMENT 4: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP

IN Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at current prices)

Item (`in crore) RATES OF GDP (%)
Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product
2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2 Q1 Q2
1.     Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 1823568 1883076 2042054 2106743 2226885 2304645 57.4 57.3 57.3 57.3
2.     Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE) 357350 418342 433530 507156 519320 543314 12.2 13.8 13.4 13.5
3.     Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 978519 969396 1036732 997746 1068642 1060787 29.2 27.1 27.5 26.4
4.     Change in Stocks 74613 75091 81641 81050 83610 87945 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.2
5.     Valuables 44737 50605 37948 44450 108658 78119 1.1 1.2 2.8 1.9
6.     Exports 671293 687100 687415 708729 708680 733272 19.3 19.3 18.2 18.2
7.     Less Imports 757976 795275 746878 765671 860680 840618 21.0 20.8 22.2 20.9
8.     Discrepancies 28174 38139 -17506 -4413 28666 54871 -0.5 -0.1 0.7 1.4
GDP 3220278 3326474 3554938 3675789 3883781 4022335 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)     10.4 10.5 9.3 9.4        

 

 

 

 

STATEMENT 5: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at 2011-12 prices)

  APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
  (`in crore) Percentage change
Industry GVA at Basic Price in H1 Over previous year H1
  2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing 678162 700007 714253 3.2 2.0
2.mining & quarrying 153508 151853 154877 -1.1 2.0
3.manufacturing 922847 1007877 1048682 9.2 4.0
4.electricity,gas,water supply & other utility services 113236 121867 130756 7.6 7.3
5.construction 431319 447110 457458 3.7 2.3
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting 941621 1020022 1127282 8.3 10.5
7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services 1264877 1367684 1450490 8.1 6.1
8.Public administration, defence & other services 628423 685546 737886 9.1 7.6
GVA at Basic Price 5133993 5501967 5821683 7.2 5.8

 

 

 

STATEMENT 6: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at 2011-12 prices)

  APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
  (`in crore) Rates of GDP (%)
Item Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 in H1
  2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 2937396 3177410 3386459 53.7 54.0
2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure 613085 714322 787364 12.1 12.5
3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 1698866 1787262 1842717 30.2 29.4
4.    Change in Stocks 135287 145289 150979 2.5 2.4
5.  Valuables 87221 71469 181123 1.2 2.9
6.    Exports 1182494 1203240 1217865 20.3 19.4
7.    Less Imports 1280944 1252514 1383021 21.2 22.0
8.    Discrepancies 122565 74185 92323 1.3 1.5
GDP 5495970 5920663 6275810 100.0 100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)   7.7 6.0    

 

STATEMENT 7: ESTIMATES OF GVA AT BASIC PRICES IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at current prices)

  APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
  (` in crore) Percentage change
Industry GVA at Basic Price in H1 over previous year H1
  2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
1.agriculture,forestry&fishing 899323 988833 1007164 10.0 1.9
2.mining&quarrying 152150 131325 146930 -13.7 11.9
3.manufacturing 1023812 1119023 1193692 9.3 6.7
4.electricity,gas,watersupply & other utility services 163980 170324 181816 3.9 6.7
5.construction 498129 517056 541967 3.8 4.8
6. trade, hotel, transport, communication & services related to broadcasting 1096416 1189663 1348144 8.5 13.3
7.financial, insurance, real estate &    professional services 1464754 1624089 1765544 10.9 8.7
8.Public administration, defence & other services 816465 928097 1032622 13.7 11.3
GVA at Basic Price 6115029 6668410 7217878 9.0 8.2

 

 

STATEMENT 8: ESTIMATES OF EXPENDITURES OF GDP IN H1

(APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2017-18

(at current prices)

  APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
  (` in crore) Rates of GDP (%)
Item Expenditures of Gross Domestic Product in H1 in H1
  2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2016-17 2017-18
1.    Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) 3706644 4148798 4531531 57.4 57.3
2.    Government Final Consumption Expenditure 775692 940686 1062634 13.0 13.4
3.    Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) 1947914 2034477 2129428 28.1 26.9
4.    Change in Stocks 149704 162691 171554 2.2 2.2
5.  Valuables 95343 82397 186777 1.1 2.4
6.    Exports 1358392 1396144 1441952 19.3 18.2
7.    Less Imports 1553251 1512548 1701298 20.9 21.5
8.    Discrepancies 66313 -21919 83537 -0.3 1.1
GDP 6546752 7230726 7906117 100.0 100.0
GDP (Percentage change over previous year)   10.4 9.3    
H1: April- September