From caste arithmetic to jobless growth, Bihar’s upcoming election is shaping into a battle between old loyalties and new aspirations.
Arun Srivastava
Bihar’s forthcoming assembly election is not merely another political event — it has become a referendum on how the state envisions its future. With the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) struggling to preserve unity and the opposition Mahagathbandhan sharpening its message around change and youth empowerment, the battle for Bihar is poised to redefine its political grammar.
A Shifting Power Equation
For over two decades, Bihar’s political map has been dominated by familiar faces — Nitish Kumar’s governance image and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s social base. But the equations are changing. The NDA, led by the Janata Dal (United) and the Bharatiya Janata Party, appears internally strained over seat-sharing and leadership fatigue. On the other hand, the opposition front, now firmly behind Tejashwi Yadav, is attempting to project a generational shift — from identity politics to aspirational politics.
The RJD leader, who represents both youth and legacy, is positioning himself as the face of a “new Bihar” — one where employment, industrial growth and migration reversal replace caste arithmetic as the central narrative.
The Caste Arithmetic Evolves
The recently concluded caste survey in Bihar has shaken the traditional electoral hierarchy. Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) — now known to form around 36 % of the population — have emerged as a crucial bloc. The JDU has adjusted its candidate list accordingly, giving higher representation to EBCs and upper-caste voters, while the RJD continues to rely on its Yadav-Muslim base but with broader outreach.
This subtle shift reflects an underlying truth: caste will continue to matter, but its expression is no longer rigid. Economic and regional aspirations are beginning to overlap with identity.
Youth and Migration as Decisive Themes
No discussion on Bihar’s future is complete without addressing migration. For decades, the state’s youth have been forced to leave in search of work. In this election, migration has transformed from a socio-economic problem into a political flashpoint. The opposition accuses the government of failing to create jobs, while the ruling coalition highlights infrastructural progress in roads, electricity and education.
However, voters appear to be asking a different question this time — not what has been built, but who has truly benefited?
Women and Local Governance
Interestingly, with large male migration, women voters now hold significant influence in rural constituencies. Nitish Kumar’s record on women’s empowerment — through self-help groups and prohibition policies — continues to earn him quiet respect. But younger women voters, better educated and socially aware, are demanding more than safety and welfare — they are asking for genuine opportunity.
The Road Ahead
Bihar’s 2025 election thus represents three intersecting trends:
- The erosion of old political monopolies.
- The assertion of new socio-economic identities.
- The emergence of performance-based politics.
The outcome will not only determine who forms the next government but will also reveal whether Bihar’s democracy can transition from dependence to development, from caste loyalty to citizen accountability.
As the campaign intensifies, one question looms large — can Bihar finally break the cycle of hope and heartbreak that has defined its politics for decades?