By Kushal Jeena
The outcome of by-elections to two assembly constituencies taking place this weekend in Madhya Pradesh is all set to determine which way the general mood is going to swing in the elections to the state assembly by yearend. The result of by-polls would decide the fate of Jyotiraditya Scindia as Congress chief ministerial candidate.
The elections to the two assembly segments Mungaoli and Kolaras that fall vacant after death of two Congress legislatures would be held on February 24. Both seats fall under Guna parliamentary constituency currently held by junior Scindia and are pocket-borough of erstwhile royalty. The chief minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan is leaving no stone unturned to wrest these two seats from Congress to give a serious jolt to the effort of Jyotiraditya Scindia become an unchallenged leader of the Congress and ultimate heir to the throne when the state goes to the polls later this year. In his bid to attract poor voters and tribal community that hold key to the elections in these two segments. Chauhan has announced a series of welfare schemes including Rs 1,000 monthly pension to saharia tribes to fight malnutrition.
The chief minister has also deployed a battery of ministers of his cabinet in both seats whereas Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia has making frequent visits to the assembly constituencies to retain them as the by-polls have became a prestigious issue for him because any kind of eventuality might seal his budding political career as a chief ministerial candidate. Buoyed by its performance in recently held assembly elections in Gujarat and victory in Chitrakoot by poll, the Congress says it is confident of not only retaining both seats but also improve the margin of victory.
“The chief minister has been making hollow promises to the people, which he cannot fulfill. During Shivpuri by-poll in 2017 he made 146 announcements, but only two of them were implemented. I Mungaoli and Kolaras he has so far made 425 promises, but nothing has materialized on the ground,” Scindia said during his campaign trail.
The stakes of the chief minister Chauhan are much higher in the upcoming assembly by-polls than the Congress stalwart as a victory in the Congress strong hold could help change the general perception that his is a non-serious and non-working government. In case a defeat could further boost the morale of his detractors who has been launching a campaign for his ouster to beat anti-incumbency ahead of state elections.
If Congress is able to retain both the assembly seats, it will help Jyotirditya to consolidate his hold within the state party and subsequently usher unity among senior leaders of state Congress, which is already a faction-ridden.
After winning Chitrakoot assembly by-elections recently by a handsome margin the mood in the Congress is already upbeat. The credit of the victory in Chitrakoot was given to Ajay Si8ngh, the leader of opposition in the state assembly as the assembly segment comes under his area of influence. Singh, son of former Congress strongman and state chief minister Arjun Singh has also emerged as one of the strong contenders to lead the party in the forthcoming assembly polls. The junior Scindia who has so far come up as a natural choice of central party leadership to head the party in Madhya Pradesh seems to have no choice other than winning the by elections as only a victory in his home-turf would place him ahead of his contenders. It would also go a long way in preparing party workers for a tough fight ahead. After witnessing three drubbings consecutively in assembly elections in MP, Congress workers have virtually lost of party staging a comeback.
The electoral battle in Mungaoli and Kolaras has become a high-pitched because high stakes. Thus, names of actual candidates getting fewer mention in speeches of leaders of both the Congress and the BJP. The death of former state minister and a loyal of Scindia family, Mahendra Singh Kalukhera necessitated by-poll in Mungaoli assembly constituency where BJP’s Bhaisaab is pitted against Brajendra Singh of Congress. The majority of voters in this constituency are rural and the BJP has promised to make Mungaoli a smart city. The Congress continues to hold influence among rural voters. The BJP’s candidate Devendra Jain is taking on Mahendra Singh of the Congress. Only 29 out of 311 polling stations in Kolaras are urban.
“If people make the BJP win the residents of Mungaoli and Kolaras will get two MLAs—one our candidate and second me as other MLA. I will work like an MLA for both seats for the next six month,” Chauhan said on the sidelines of one of his rally in Mungaloi.
The resentment against the style of functioning of chief minister Chauhan among the party leaders has come to the fore in the state BJP, a sizeable section of the party supported by union minister Uma Bharti has been mounting pressure on the central leadership for a change of guard on the ground that a strong anti-incumbency factor has emerged against Chauhan. The BJP in MP, which is considered to be party working as one unit, is a divided house today like Congress.
On the contrary, Congress that lost three consecutive assembly elections in MP after ten year rule of Digvijay Singh-led government is nowadays trying to forge unity among its rank and file. With former chief minister and a Congress heavy weight Digvijay Singh currently busy in a pilgrimage, the efforts of Congress high command seem started bearing fruits as barring few majority of the state Congress leaders have accepted junior Scindia as their leader. If this trend continues, the party is bound to fight back in both the by-polls and upcoming assembly elections as BJP government has lost the faith of people and only a united and rejuvenated Congress could provide them a credible alternative. The emergence of Scindia as new torch-bearer of the Congress party in Madhya Pradesh would send a strong signal among voters particularly youth which is now a disgruntled lot because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has failed to fulfill his promise of creating million of new jobs in the country.
The BJP and Congress have been winning both Mungaoli and Kolaras assembly seats turn by turn since 1985 in a cyclic pattern. The BJP has won Kalarus four times, the Congress has emerged victorious thrice. It is the first time that contest in both seats has taken an interesting turn. Both the parties are working hard to win the by-elections.
The verdict of the assembly by-polls could also be considered as a pointer to the general mood in the two-adjoining BJP-ruled state of Chhattisgarh and Rajastha as an adverse result could further aggravated anti-incumbency in these two states. The BJP has been in power in Chhattisgarh for last one-and-half decade whereas it will complete its five year term later this year.