By Devsagar Singh
By enacting a legislation for women’s reservation in parliament and assemblies, the Modi Government seems to have stumped the Opposition INDIA alliance ahead of elections in five states later this year and the parliamentary polls early next year, but it runs the risk of re-opening an old malaise –the Pandora’s Box of caste system.
None can forget the convulsions the country went through when late Prime Minister V.P.Singh in 1989 decided to implement the Mandal Commission report of caste based reservation.
Already, the INDIA alliance has raised its demand for reservation within reservation for the backward caste women . Congress and other constituents are also pressing for a separate reservation for OBCs in the country. The Opposition grouping can ill afford to ignore Samajwadi Party, the RJD and the JDU , the front runners in this campaign having major influence in key states like UP and Bihar.
The Modi Government’s narrative of stealing a major plank in the form of 33 per cent reservation for women in Parliament and state legislatures may run into rough weather. For, there is no clarity as to when the legislation would be implemented. Both the census and the delimitation exercise, on which the reservation rests, are far away. The earliest it could be implemented is the 2029 parliamentary polls. This has given the Opposition a major handle to attack the Modi Government with.
It is another matter that the UPA Government under Manmohan Singh had decided to keep under wrap the caste figures obtained in the 2010 census.
But more harmful for the country in the long run is giving fresh legitimacy to the caste system for sheer political expediency of some parties. The Opposition is now clamouring for a caste census in the country to determine the strength of various castes in order to determine their reservation quota, among others. The Bihar Government under Chief Minister Nitish Kumar is already holding its caste census despite opposition from the Centre. Now that the INDIA alliance has given its green signal, all non-BJP states would surely go ahead for the same. In a public speech recently, Rahul Gandhi spoke in favour of a nation wide caste census, if only to beat the BJP regime under Modi. It is another matter that the UPA Government under Manmohan Singh had decided to keep under wrap the caste figures obtained in the 2010 census.
So, will the nation undergo another caste convulsion, a repeat of 1989? There is little likelihood of it being averted, unfortunately. The Opposition, particularly the Congress, always stood in favour of ending the caste system in the country as was envisioned by its stalwarts. But it has changed its priority now for political reasons. The focus is to unseat Modi and the BJP.
The NDA under Modi believes that it gained during 2019 parliamentary elections because of measures like Ujjawala Yojna, Jan Dhan Yojna , Beti Padhao Beti Bachao movement, among others. Even abolition of triple talaq ,it is claimed, helped Modi to attract Muslim women voters. The NDA appears confident that the passage of women’s reservation now would prove to be a game changer. While it remains to be seen if the Modi regime gains by the measure, there is no doubt that the Opposition is out to queer the pitch for the ruling party over the issue.
By demanding that the women’s reservation be implemented immediately, the Opposition seems to have taken wind out of the sails of the ruling party. By raising the OBC reservation separately, it has further put the NDA/BJP into quandary. In reality, both the ruling and the Opposition alliance are vying for the OBC votes which account for a whopping 27 per cent.
Clearly, reservation for OBC women separately within the 33 per cent quota, its immediate implementation, a caste census across states –these have the potential to become major poll issues both in the upcoming state elections and the parliamentary polls later. Will Prime Minister Modi succeed in convincing the OBC voters to put their seal of approval for him yet again , being an OBC himself? While the jury is out, Modi is definitely facing what looks like an insurmountable problem this time round with the INDIA alliance confident of putting one-to-one fight in at least 350 to 400 parliamentary constituencies in 2024.
Devsagar Singh is a senior journalist
