AMN /
The Economist has examined the consequences if India’s monsoon fails in future. The report explores the potential effects on India and the world if the nation experiences a more erratic rainy season.
The report is part of The World If, a compilation of scenarios of what might happen across politics, business and technology. It observes that evidence from the past quarter-century suggests that the monsoon is becoming less stable and although scientists point to a 10% increase in downpours, due to climate change, these typically don’t arrive at the right time or right place.
For the population of India, the consequences are serious: With 600 million people depending on farming and two-thirds of the fields having no irrigation and relying solely on rain, hundreds of millions of people would see their incomes crash if the monsoon failed.
As India’s farmers often lack insurance and adequate savings, a series of bad monsoons could spread enormous disquiet and spur migration to cities. This would affect not only India but also Pakistan, Bangladesh and another 350 million people who also depend on the same regular monsoon season – approximately one fifth of the world’s population.
For the rest of the world, as a major exporter of rice, a drought in India could push up global prices of the commodity significantly.
The Economist believes the risks could be mitigated: “India could invest more in reservoirs, small-scale water harvesting, drip irrigation and crops (including genetically modified ones) better able to withstand droughts. India must also get to grips with its terrible air pollution, reducing that could yet mean more rain in the monsoon. In the meantime it would be safe to expect more unpredictability.”